Lok Sabha Exit Polls 2024 Highlights: PM Modi all set for 3rd time; NDA to get 350+ seats, INDIA bloc to fall short, predicts News18 exit poll

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance is projected to win a majority in the general election that concluded on June1.

Poll of polls of at least nine exit polls predicted at least 361 seats for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The simple majority mark in Lok Sabha is 272. Meanwhile, the Congress-led INDIA alliance is expected to win 143 seats.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) rejected the exit poll predictions of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal.

Party leader Santanu Sen said that most of the exit polls had predicted a victory for the BJP in the 2021 assembly elections. "But we all know what the actual results were -- TMC won a two-thirds majority," he said.

Sen stated that the party believes in people's polls, not opinion polls or exit polls. The TMC will win more than 30 Lok Sabha seats in the state, he claimed.

The News18 Mega Exit Poll has predicted 305-315 seats for BJP, with a vote share of 40 per cent. Congress is likely to bag 62-72 seats with a vote share of 20 per cent.

NDA: 19-22
YSRCP: 5-8

NDA: 9-12
INDIA bloc: 2-5

Total seats: 26

BJP is expected to sweep all 26 seats in Gujarat in the Lok Sabha election 2024, according to News18 Mega Exit Poll.

- Former Chhattisgarh CM and BJP leader Raman Singh said that the kind of results that are being seen across the country, shows that this country will move on the path of Sanatan, which is ancient as well as the most modern.

- The poor, workers, farmers, and women of the country have put their stamp on the 10 years of development, said Singh.

- He added that the third term will be for the glorious development of the country, it will be a start towards making India the third power in the world.

Total seats: 21

BJP: 13-15
BJD: 6-8

- Expecting 20% vote share for BJP and 25% for NDA, extent of vote erosion of AIADMK likely very high
- This is our rightful vote share, can't not give an entire generation in TN the chance to vote for PM Modi
- If we are not able to contest during PM Modi's term, when will we contest
- In the next one year, TN will be the state to watch for, it will be a good state for BJP to grow the party

Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said that BJP by itself will get at least 10-15 per cent more seats than in 2019, which means about 333-345 seats.

He said the party's vote share in Karnataka is projected at 48 per cent and BJP may emerge as the single largest party in Southern states

Total seats: 40

NDA: 31-34 (BJP: 13-16)
INDIA bloc: 6-9 (Congress: 0-1)

Total seats: 42

BJP: 21-24
TMC: 18-21

Total seats: 80

NDA: 68-71 (BJP: 64-67)
INDIA bloc: 9-12 (Congress: 3-6)

In all exit polls, it is shown that NDA is getting complete majority, said Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami. He added that on June 4, when the counting will begin, these numbers will increase.

With a massive win, PM Modi will become the Prime Minister for the third time, said Dhami, adding that it is the victory of 140 crore family members of the BJP leader.

Total seats: 5
BJP: 5
Congress: 0

A repeat of 2019 likely, with the BJP winning all the five seats in the hill state.

From the beginning itself it was felt that BJP and PM Modi will get the whole country's blessings, said Chhattisgarh CM Vishnu Deo Sai. He stated that the whole country wants PM Modi to become PM again.

Reacting to the exit poll predictions for the state, Sai said that it is not surprising.

Total seats: 4

BJP: 4
Congress: 0

Total seats: 10

NDA: 5-7
INDIA bloc: 3-5

Total seats: 13

NDA: 2-4
INDIA bloc: 8-10
Others: 0-1

Total seats: 7

BJP: 5-7
INDIA bloc: 0-2

Total seats: 14

NDA: 10-13
INDIA bloc: 2-5
Others: 0-1

Total seats: 11

NDA: 9-11
INDIA bloc: 0-2

Total seats: 29

NDA: 26-29
INDIA bloc: 0-3

Total seats: 25

NDA: 18-23
INDIA bloc: 2-7

BJP leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that the BJP, along with the NDA, will cross the 400-seat mark. He claimed that the BJP alone will win 370 seats.

The trust for PM Modi in the nation is unparallel, said Chouhan.

Seat share projection for Maharashtra as per News18 Mega Exit Poll

Total seats: 48

NDA: 32-35 (BJP: 20-23)
INDIA bloc: 15-18

"Whether it is South India or North India, people want a change now. The Samajwadi Party and the INDIA alliance will form the government on June 4," said Samajwadi Party leader Fakhrul Hasan Chaand.

Total seats: 17

NDA: 7-10
INDIA bloc: 5-8
Others: 3-5

As per the prediction, the BJP is going to make big gains in the southern state with 7-10 seats.

Total seats: 25

NDA: 19-22
Others: 5-8

The poll predicts that BJP will win 4-6 seats in Andhra Pradesh.

Total seats: 28

NDA: 23-26
INDIA bloc: 3-7

As per the prediction, BJP will get 21-24 seats while Congress will secure 3-7 seats.

Total seats: 20

NDA: 1-3
INDIA bloc: 15-18
Others: 2-5

The poll predicts BJP will get 1-3 seats while Congress will win 12-15 seats.

Total seats: 39

NDA: 1-3
INDIA bloc: 36-39
Others: 0-2

The poll predicts that Narendra Modi-led BJP will win 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu while Congress will win 8-11 seats.

INDIA alliance will secure a minimum of 295 Lok Sabha seats and we are forming the government, said Congress leader Pawan Khera after a meeting of the INDIA alliance leaders in New Delhi. "We decided this is 'Janata ka poll' and we should take it to the television channels and expose the BJP ecosystem," he said.

The results of exit polls will be available on Moneycontrol and broadcasted by CNN-News18 after 6:30 pm. The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each of Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages.

A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved.

After the INDI alliance leaders meet in Delhi, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav said that in Uttar Pradesh, all seats of the BJP will be lost. He further added that INDIA bloc will win the most seats.

"There was an earthquake of unemployment, price rise, GST, CBI, ED and Income Tax. All of these earthquakes will end," he said.

Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, after a meeting at his residence, expressed confidence on INDIA bloc's win in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

"INDI alliance will win at least 295 seats," said Kharge.

The opposition-led INDIA bloc meeting took place for over two hours in the national capital and was attended by several leaders including Arvind Kejriwal, Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, among others.

- A day after announcing its decision to not participate in exit polls debate, Congress has now reversed its move.

- "INDIA parties met and decided to expose the BJP and its ecosystem on the prefixed exit polls. After considering factors for and against participating in the exit polls, it has been decided by consensus that all the INDIA parties will participate in the exit poll debates on television this evening," said Congress leader Pawan Khera on X.

Earlier, Khera had said the voters have cast their votes and their verdict has been secured.

"The results will be out on 4th June. Prior to that, we do not see any reason to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP," he said

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the exit poll survey conducted by News18’s IPSOS India made near accurate predictions. News18’s IPSOS India predicted 336 seats for NDA and 82 for UPA.

After the result declaration, NDA bagged 353 seats in Lok Sabha while UPA bagged only 91.

Hours before the exit polls predictions, the leaders of the opposition INDIA bloc gathered in New Delhi at Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge's residence for a crucial meeting.

Leaders attending the meeting are Mallikarjun Kharge, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and KC Venugopal (INC), Akhilesh Yadav (SP), Sharad Pawar and Jitendra Awhad (NCP), Arvind Kejriwal, Bhagwant Mann, Sanjay Singh and Raghav Chadha (AAP), TR Baalu (DMK), Tejashwi Yadav and Sanjay Yadav (RJD), Champai Soren and Kalpana Soren (JMM), Farooq Abdullah (J&K NC), D Raja (CPI), Sitaram Yechury (CPIM), among others.

TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, however, is not present. She had announced earlier that it would not be possible for her to attend the meeting on the day of the last phase of Lok Sabha polls. She also cited cyclone relief work as a reason for missing the key meeting.

As the last phase of Lok Sabha election is underway, all eyes are now on the exit poll predictions which will be released later in the evening today.

Several media houses and political research agencies conduct exit polls by conducting surveys outside polling stations where voters are asked about their voting choices. Voters are asked about the political party they support after they have casted their votes in an election.

Read more on how exit polls are conducted here.

Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav has expressed confidence that the opposition INDIA bloc will form the government at the centre. Speaking to ANI, he said, "What does '400 paar' mean? The truth is that the one who is sitting facing the sea has turned his back on the public...They will not go beyond 140."

- Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and ruling DMK President M K Stalin urged party workers to "remain vigilant during the vote counting process". In a post on X, Stalin claimed that INDIA bloc, which was formed to defeat the ten-year fascist regime of the BJP and save India, met the expectations of the people and stands on the cusp of victory.

- "Through relentless campaigning, the leaders of the INDIA bloc have dismantled the false image the BJP created in the public sphere. With just three days remaining until our impending victory, I urge our cadre to remain vigilant during the vote counting process," said Stalin.

- June 4th will mark the beginning of a new dawn for India, said Stalin. He concluded, "May the fascist BJP fall! May INDIA triumph!"

"After this seventh phase of elections, BJP is going to form the government with a clear majority and the slogan of crossing 400 is becoming a reality on the ground," said former CM and BJP leader Raman Singh.

Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera on June 1 counter-attacked Home Minister Amit Shah over his remarks on the grand old party's decision to not participate in exit poll debates. In a post on X, Khera wrote, “Amit Shah ji, you can celebrate the exit polls today, we will celebrate when the results come on the 4th."

"Congress has been in denial mode for so long... the whole election they kept campaigning that they are going to get the majority but they know the situation that... in the coming exit polls, it will be their massive defeat so they can't face the media. Therefore, they are boycotting the entire exit poll exercise," Shah had said earlier.

How accurate are exit polls?

Exit poll predictions are based on voter feedback that are collected by agencies after polling in each phase. The predictions may not always be accurate given that they are dependent on a number of factors including sample size, methodology, among others.

As such, the predictions may not always be correct. However, they help in giving an insight into public sentiment before the announcement of the actual results. The results for Lok Sabha polls will be announced on June 4.

Andhra Pradesh Police stepped up security across the state on June 1 as exit polls are set to be released post the completion of the seventh phase of polling.

“There may be chances of violence once the exit polls are announced. An alert has been sounded across the state and instructions have been issued to maintain visible policing and intensify patrolling,” the Hindu reported quoting a senior police officer.

History of exit polls in India

- The first exit poll was conducted in India in the year 1957 when the Indian Institute of Public Opinion carried out a post-poll survey during the second Lok Sabha elections in the country.

- In 1996, state-run broadcaster Doordarshan brought in Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to conduct exit polls across the country. Since then, the practice of conducting surveys took off and today most major media houses tie up with political research agencies to bring public opinion to the fore.

On May 31, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav asked his party workers, office-bearers and candidates to remain "vigilant" and "fully alert" against the "lies" of the BJP and "its exit polls."

"Today, I am making an extremely important appeal to you. All of you should remain fully alert, vigilant and cautious during the voting tomorrow and also in the days after the voting, till the counting of votes is over and you receive the certificate of victory. Do not get misled by the BJP," said Yadav in a post on X.

"Actually we are making this appeal because the BJP people have made a plan that as soon as the elections are over tomorrow evening, they will start getting their 'media group' to say on various channels that the BJP has got a lead of around 300 seats, which is completely false," Yadav wrote.

"Congress has decided to exit the exit polls debate today. It shows that they already fear what is going to come their way on 4th June…This is yet another indication of their meltdown. First they blame EVM/ECI, then they blame Exit Polls, last they will blame Janta It shows the mindset of Congress which undermines every institution including media," says Shehzad Poonawalla, Spokesperson of Bharatiya Janata Party on X.

With around 24 hours remaining for the exit polls, poll expert Prashant Kishor is remaining true to his poll estimate. Today marks the conclusion of the weeks-long Lok Sabha election voting process.

Prashant Kishor stated, "I expect the Modi-led BJP to get the same number of seats it bagged in 2019 elections or may perform even better," in an interview with Vir Sanghvi at The Print. "In my opinion, the BJP will return with a majority that is comparable to or marginally superior. I don't think the BJP will suffer a significant loss of seats in western and northern India," he stated. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 303 seats, the majority of which came from northern and western India.

Indian market erased previous week gains and lost nearly 2 percent in a volatile week ended May 31 ahead of exit poll results, GDP data, May F&O expiry and continued FII selling. However, mixed corporate earnings, positive monsoon forecasts and DII buying helped to limit the losses.

Structured questionnaires play a vital role in collecting coherent data for analysis. While a large sample size is important, ensuring the representativeness of the sample is equally critical. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) underscores the importance of representative samples in ensuring accurate predictions.

-Voters are questioned about their voting preferences during exit polls, which are held outside of polling places. By relying on voters' recent experiences, this strategy raises the possibility that their preferences will be disclosed precisely. In contrast to pre-election opinion surveys, exit polls provide results right away following the polls.

- Government agencies seldom conduct exit surveys; instead, private companies or media outlets do. It functions under the presumption that information is gathered via organised questionnaire-assisted interviews with a sizable number of respondents.

- Opinion polls are carried out in the days, weeks, or even months preceding an election. These surveys are intended to gather feedback on political choices from the public. Exit polls are conducted by researchers who ask voters how they have voted just after they leave the polling station on poll day.

- A random sample of registered voters is frequently used in opinion polls to assess the preferences of the electorate. Meanwhile, exit polls collect data from voters immediately after they cast their ballots.

Lok Sabha Election 2024: “They have accepted their defeat already,” says BJP MP RPN Singh on Congress' decision to not participate in exit polls debate.

On June 1 (Saturday), at 6 p.m., the exit poll results will begin to be received. On June 4 (Tuesday), the votes will be counted and the results announced.

An election's voting patterns can be inferred via exit polls. Voters are interviewed immediately following their departure from the polls to arrive at these conclusions. In addition, other voter data-related computations are taken into account.

- Less than a day before the exit polls, and the Congress said on Friday that it will be abstaining from all exit poll discussions.

- On social networking site X, senior Congressman Pawan Khera declared that the party "will not participate in the debates on exit polls."

- "Voters have cast their ballots, and their verdict has been secured," he continued. On June 4th, the results will be released. We don't see any need to engage in conjecture and slugfests for TRP until then.

On Saturday, June 1, the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections 2024, which are being held in 543 seats, will come to an end. As soon as the last vote is cast in the voting place, the exit polls are anticipated to open.

The first part of the electoral process began on April 19. The following stage began on April 26. The dates of the subsequent stages were May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 26. June 1 is designated for the last phase.

An exit poll is a survey conducted after an election that forecasts who will win and by how much. Based on voter input gathered by survey companies following the polls, the forecasts are made. Although the purpose of the exit polls is to gauge public opinion far in advance of the official results being declared, there has previously been debate over their accuracy.