Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Five reasons why TMC-Congress alliance failed in Bengal

West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC chief Mamata Banerjee. (File photo)

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) on March 10 dealt a significant blow to the Congress party by unveiling its list of candidates for all 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal. This strategic move effectively disrupts the Grand Old Party's strategy for forging an alliance in the crucial state, cementing the latest setback for the Opposition's Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

At present, the TMC holds 22 out of the state's 42 Lok Sabha segments, while the BJP holds 17, and the Congress holds two. The Krishnanagar seat has been vacant since TMC's former MP Mahua Moitra was expelled from the Lower House of Parliament on December 8 last year.

Mamata Asserts TMC's Independent Stance

TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee had previously publicly stated that the Congress had requested 12-14 seats, but she could only offer them two. She emphasized that the TMC would contest independently in Bengal and field two candidates in Assam. In public, neither state Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury nor any leaders from Delhi specified the number of seats they were keen to contest in Bengal. The only condition put forward was that the party desired seats in south Bengal as well.

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Chowdhury's Rift with Bengal CM

The longstanding animosity between Chowdhury and the Bengal CM is widely known. Leading up to the Lok Sabha polls, Chowdhury has often voiced his inclination to run as an Independent rather than align with the TMC.

The evident disarray within the Congress ranks is apparent, with AICC leaders like Jairam Ramesh consistently stating that discussions with the TMC are ongoing, while Bengal leaders persist in criticising the Mamata Banerjee government.

Since 2014, in Chowdhury's stronghold of Murshidabad, as well as across the state, the influence of the Congress has steadily diminished. Several leaders, such as Apurba Sarkar, Abu Taher Khan, Shaoni Singha Roy, and others, have switched their allegiance to the TMC.

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Derek O'Brien Alleges Collusion Between Chowdhury and BJP

Earlier, senior TMC leader and Rajya Sabha member Derek O'Brien levelled accusations against Chowdhury, alleging that he is collaborating with the BJP and the CPI(M) in Baharampur and other constituencies. Baharampur serves as the Lok Sabha constituency of Chowdhury, who serves as the leader of the Congress in Lok Sabha.

O'Brien had previously blamed the breakdown of seat-sharing discussions in the state to Chowdhury's criticism against the TMC.

In January this year, Mamata issued clear instructions to TMC leaders from Murshidabad, urging them to escalate their political efforts to ensure the party's triumph in all three Lok Sabha seats within the district, including Behrampore, which is presently held by Chowdhury.

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Reports suggest that Mamata had shown a readiness to leave Behrampore and Malda South to the Congress. However, the Congress sought additional constituencies, including Murshidabad, Jangipur, Malda North, Raiganj, Darjeeling, Purulia, and Basirhat.

TMC Justifies 2-seat Offer to Congress, Citing Vote Share Trends

The TMC advocated for the Congress leadership to acknowledge the grand old party's weakened position in the state and to allow Mamata to spearhead the battle against the BJP. In response to the Congress's offer of two seats, Chowdhury countered by asserting that the party does not need Mamata's mercy.

The TMC defended its proposition of allocating two seats to the Congress, citing the historically low vote shares of the grand old party in both assembly and Lok Sabha elections. In nearly 39 out of 42 constituencies in West Bengal, the Congress garnered less than five percent of the vote share in previous elections. Specifically, the Congress secured a vote share of 2.93 percent in the 2021 assembly polls, 12.25 percent in the 2016 assembly polls, and 5.67 percent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

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In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) secured 22 seats in West Bengal, while the Congress obtained two, and the BJP delivered an impressive performance by claiming 18 seats. Notably, the BJP's tally was 16 seats more than what it had secured in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, while the Trinamool's count decreased by 12 from its 34 seats five years back.

TMC Alleges Congress-CPM Nexus in Bengal Politics

Mamata has stood as a resilient figure in the fight against the Left's stronghold in West Bengal, often shouldering the burden of this struggle largely alone. She has openly expressed her dissatisfaction with the Congress leadership's close ties to the CPI(M), a partnership she deems disproportionate to the latter's electoral influence. Recently, Banerjee voiced concerns over the perceived "hijacking" of INDIA meetings by the Left party, highlighting her reservations about their degree of control within the coalition.

More significantly, Mamata's significant backing from the minority vote has consistently been one of her key strengths, amplifying her influence beyond West Bengal's confines. She has been wary of granting the Congress too much leeway, fearing it might dilute this loyal vote bank that has stood firmly behind her.