The Lingayat conundrum: Trouble brewing for BJP in Karnataka?

Union minister Pralhad Joshi (L), seeking to win for the fifth time from Karnataka’s Dharwad Lok Sabha seat, is up against head of Shirahatti Fakkireshwar Math, Dingaleshwar Swamiji. (Image: PTI/News18 Kannada/File)

The decision taken by the influential Lingayat seer Fakira Dingaleshwar Swami to contest against Prahalad Joshi in Dharwad has surely raised quite a few eyebrows. For the BJP, this is indeed a cause for concern. The Lingayats are amongst the BJP’s most important influential voters in Karnataka. In the 2019 general elections, data from the Lokniti survey suggests that the BJP secured around 87% of Lingayat votes. The BJP swept the elections winning 25 out of the 28 seats, with an additional independent backed by the BJP also winning. During the 2014 Lok Sabha polls Lokniti’s data suggests that BJP’s Lingayat vote share fell to 63%. Interestingly, the Congress did win some seats in Karnataka during these elections. Despite the pan-India wave in favour of the BJP, the Congress managed to win 9 seats in Karnataka, bringing the BJP’s tally to 17.

Clearly, the Lingayat vote is a critical factor for the BJP’s success in Karnataka. This is why the Lingayat seer’s decision to contest against Prahalad Joshi is a matter for concern. At one level, it is a direct challenge to Prahalad Joshi’s chances of winning in Dharwad. It would result in the Lingayat vote getting split, which hands the advantage to the Congress. Dharwad has been Joshi’s (and BJP’s) bastion ever since the de-limitation of 2009. Prior to de-limitation, Prahalad Joshi has been the MP from Dharwad North since 2004 and the BJP has held this seat since 1996. The most immediate concern would be the potential for Congress’ gains in a seat which is BJP’s traditional stronghold.

At another level, the BJP would be concerned if the trends in Dharwad translates into a broader division of the Lingayat vote across Karnataka. There are some warning signs that this could be a possibility. In the 2023 Assembly Elections, the BJP could not achieve the levels of Lingayat vote consolidation it was hoping for. Lokniti data suggests that BJP’s share of the Lingayat vote went down from 60% in 2018 to 56% in 2023, while Congress’ vote share went up from 20% to 29% in the same time period. As a result, out of the 63 seats in Central and Kittur Karnataka the Congress won 41. This marked a major victory for the Congress, in a traditional BJP stronghold. As highlighted earlier, the Lokniti data for the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections also show a similar pattern. In 2014, when the Congress made significant inroads into the Lingayat vote base, the party won a total of 9 seats, reducing the BJP to 17.

2023 also saw one of BJP’s senior Lingayat leaders, Jagdish Shettar, leave the party ranks and join the Congress. He contested the elections from Huballi-Dharwad Central on a Congress ticket. He went on to lose the election and then returned to the BJP in January 2024. While Shettar’s exit and him contesting on a Congress ticket did not stop the BJP winning Huballi-Dharwad Central, the party has not taken any chances this time. Shettar has been given a BJP ticket from Belagavi. This suggests that the BJP does not want a repeat of 2023, with a prominent Lingayat leader like Shettar rebelling.

One of BJP’s most prominent Kuruba leaders and former Deputy Chief Minister K.S Eshwarappa announced that he would be contesting as an independent candidate against BS Yeddyurappa’s son B.Y. Raghavendra in Shivamogga. This move again is a major cause for concern as it could split the BJP vote (especially the non-dominant OBC vote). Eshwarappa decided to contest the elections after his son was denied a ticket. Eshwarappa’s decision to contest against Yeddyurappa’s son is seen as a way to settle scores. For the BJP this makes for very poor optics. The internal divisions within its Lingayat support base could not come at a more inconvenient time. The BJP needs a united front amongst its leadership to win back lost ground in the Lingayat heartland.

The rebellion in Dharwad by the Lingayat seer highlights another concern for the BJP - anti-incumbency against sitting MPs. This challenge has forced the party to drop several sitting MPs, like Naleen Kumar Kateel in Dakshina Kannada, Sadananda Gowda in Bengaluru North and shifting Shobha Karandlaje out of Udupi-Chikkamagalur. A similar anti-incumbency appears to be brewing against Prahalad Joshi in Dharwad. Comments made by the seer linking the distribution of tickets to ‘match fixing’ indicate a certain level of fatigue. Since these developments Prahalad Joshi has attempted to shift the attention to the Prime Minister, underscoring that Lok Sabha elections are not about caste but about national issues. Can this emphasis on the Prime Minister and national level issues shift the focus away from anti-incumbency against sitting MPs? The BJP would be hoping that this is indeed the case.

With elections just around the corner, the BJP would be keeping a close eye on the Lingayat votes. Importantly, it will need to regain lost ground in the Lingayat heartland of Kittur and Central Karnataka to replicate the near clean sweep it achieved in 2019. The developments over the last few days however, is a matter for concern. With prominent Lingayat personalities like Fakira Dingaleshwar Swami deciding to contest as an independent, there is the danger of the Lingayat votes getting divided. Over the course of the next few weeks as the campaign picks up pace, the BJP will need to focus its attention on Dharwad and other areas in Northern Karnataka to prevent serious damage to its Lingayat support base.