Anti-incumbency or strong narrative, what helped the opposition in 2024?

Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav addressing a rally

Lok Sabha election 2024 results have reestablished the fact that anti-incumbency is still a factor in India. From Narendra Modi at the Centre to Jagan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh and Naveen Patnaik in Odisha, it played a part along with other issues.

The verdict came on the heels of exit polls predicting overwhelming victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies. Did the pollsters fail to read the voters’ mind or was it an exercise in fawning? Whatever it may be, several things bundled together in reducing the numbers among the members in treasury benches in 18th Lok Sabha.

So, did the reintroduction of “Mandal” override the “kamandal” issue in Lok Sabha election 2024? It may look likely with the Congress sitting pretty close to – in fact, a step short of – the three-figure mark and Janata Dal (United) moving up the leaderboard to share two dozen seats equally with its ally, the BJP after this Parliamentary elections.

Regional parties not part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), ruling in states like Jharkhand and then in Andhra Pradesh, have already initiated the process of caste surveys and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar conducted it before re-aligning with the BJP. Add to it the special schemes and reservations offered to minorities.

It is yet to be seen what will be the future course of action for Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP who upset Jagan Mohan Reddy’s applecart in Andhra Pradesh this time. The two are back in NDA fold after a brief period of separation.

The Congress too has endorsed a caste-based survey which has been part of Rahul Gandhi’s thrust for his thoughts on empowerment of Dalits, tribals, OBCs, minorities among others.

Needless to say, with the so-called Hindu consolidation and the resultant polarisation of religious vote-banks, these surveys could prove to be a political weapon for the opposition.

After its initial hesitation, the Congress would definitely want this arrow in their quiver. The grand old party has moved up, just a step short of the three-figure mark after a decade and rejuvenated itself in Uttar Pradesh, with help from the Samajwadi Party. Amethi returned Congress candidate Kishori Lal Sharma, who humbled Smriti Irani, while Rahul Gandhi regained lost ground elsewhere – in his family backyard of Rae Bareli. And the electors in Varanasi chose Narendra Modi with a much lower vote margin.

Apart from Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has also found a foothold in Rajasthan and Haryana, thus clawing back into the Hindi heartland. In Gujarat, it has gained some traction, even though it managed to win just one of the 26 seats. But it was the BJP that swept Madhya Pradesh, returning to glory former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan who won with a huge margin of over 8.2 lakh votes.

Meanwhile, the sun rose in the east for the INDIA bloc with Mamata Banerjee gaining seven seats over its 2019 tally of 22, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) won 37 of Uttar Pradesh’ 80 seats, and the Congress rose from its ashes in Rajasthan, getting eight victories, and one each going to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Bharat Adivasi Party.

But a decade back, the BJP came to power at the Centre riding high on an anti-corruption crusade and the charisma of Narendra Modi. In 2019, there was a successful temple-run and a high-decibel pitch on nationalism.

In 2024, while the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections was going on, there seemed to be a dearth in popular issues being raised at the hustings. Coupled with the intense heatwave, the factor is being held responsible for the voter turnout.

Perhaps that’s why the M-factors – the Muslim rhetoric, along with mangalsutra, mujra, mutton, etc. – were being raised. But the issues appear to have failed to move voters this time.

Meanwhile, “if voted to power, the BJP under Modi will change our Constitution” seems to have succeeded in ruffling the electors’ sentiments. Not many a time does the opposition manage to build a narrative that Modi himself comes out to crush. This was one.

Another narrative – that the BJP will end reservations in jobs also seems to have resulted in a section of Scheduled Caste votes swinging in favour of the INDIA bloc, especially in Uttar Pradesh. A steady fall in the acceptance of the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) among its voter-base suggests that Dalits are looking for alternatives. Thus, the issue could have divided their votes.

And across India, the minorities chose to vote for the party in a particular constituency that could challenge the BJP in Parliament, thereby consolidating their verdict.

Even though the result 2024 has not produced the same kind of unexpected outcome as in 2004, it has truly come as a shock to the BJP, analysts observe. A similarity is being seen between the “India shining” slogan then and “Vision India@2047” plan of today. Though laying out a path for the development of the country, the plans seemed to have failed to gain traction among electors.

The biggest achievement perhaps for the INDIA bloc is that the Modi 3 government will need to depend heavily on its NDA allies, since the BJP is short of some 32 seats from simple majority by itself, unlike 2014 and 2019.

And the final move that may help the opposition group gain some points among the masses is their decision to keep their position in the Lower House as per the mandate rather than paint the picture of a bunch of failed power grabbers by laying a stake to form the government.

After all, the magic figure is with the NDA, if not the BJP by itself.