Telangana Elections 2023: Has KCR lost the Muslim support that he took for granted?

Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao and Asaduddin Owaisi were once poles apart. The former was leading the Telangana statehood movement and the latter as chieftain of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen was a staunch supporter of Samaikhyandhra (undivided Andhra Pradesh).

Curiously, both turned strange bedfellows soon after the formation of Telangana state in 2014. All it took was KCR to cross the simple majority in the 119-member assembly. He went on to form the government in the new state with 63 seats.

The KCR-Owaisi Equation

The shrewd KCR foresaw the significant role that Owaisi and his party representing the dominant Muslim minorities in Hyderabad had to play if he was to perpetuate his rule in the capital city of the state. And thus he was quick to embrace Owaisi.

Since 2014, Rao has been engaged in a battle for political power with the Congress, which has also been trying to stake credit for the creation of the state. Owaisi is also engaged in a turf war with the Congress. Both are bidding to be the sole claimant of Muslim votes.

Since both KCR and Owaisi began to see the Congress as the common enemy, it made sense for the two leaders to make common cause.

After his ascendance to power, KCR ensured Muslims were safe under the BRS rule with zero tolerance to communal riots. With a basket of doles such as Shaadi Mubarak, a promise for a 12 percent quota in jobs and education, and developing the old city in the style of Istanbul, KCR had sought to win over Muslim minorities.

It is this promise of quotas that Union Home Minister Amit Shah took aim at in an election rally when he said his party will scrap the existing 4% Muslim quota that Congress had introduced in undivided Andhra.

Meanwhile, AIMIM’s backing has paid rich rewards for KCR in elections since 2014. KCR’s attempt for a hat-trick in 2023 hinges much on Owaisi’s support. But the political mood of Muslim voters seems to be changing this time as never before, making it difficult for the charms of Owaisi and KCR to work.

Fight For The Muslim Vote

There are chinks in AIMIM’s armour, with Congress seeing some success in its persistent efforts to paint Owaisi as a B-team of the Modi government. His venturing into electoral battles across the country, acting as a vote-cutter by taking away Muslim votes which Congress hopes to bag without breaking much sweat, has earned him the sworn enmity of the GOP.

AIMIM’s entry in the Muslim dominant constituencies has significantly helped the BJP in Maharashtra and Bihar, and Owaisi’s presence has also been felt in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. However, his outreach towards Karnataka Muslims failed massively earlier this year.

The Muslims vote went en bloc for the Congress, jettisoning not just AIMIM but also a similar outfit like the SDPI, and even the “secular” Janata offshoot JD(S). So this trend in Karnataka is also worrisome for KCR, especially if it is replicated in neighbouring Telangana.

KCR Under The Scanner

Though he presented himself as a messenger of communal peace in his home state, KCR’s credentials as a crusader against BJP haven’t been convincing, with his third front and federal front ideas going nowhere. KCR has also maintained a studied silence on issues that conservative Muslims feel keenly about like the hijab issue and the TRS (BRS) absence in the Rajya Sabha when the triple talaq bill was passed have intensified the community’s doubts.

The Bharat Jodo Yatra of Rahul Gandhi that passed through Muslim-dominant areas in Telangana for a fortnight has seemingly acted as a trigger for the shift in the mood of Muslim minorities. Rahul’s refrain at a Khammam rally that BJP, BRS and AIMIM are in cahoots and that is why KCR and Owaisi were being spared even when opposition leaders across the country were being targeted has struck a chord.

The recent rhetoric of Jamat-e-Islami state president Hamid Mohammed Khan, “We have no reasons to continue our support to the TRS since it has betrayed us by directly or indirectly supporting anti-Muslim bills in the Parliament” indicates the mood of Telangana Muslms. Former president of Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind (Telangana and Andhra Pradesh) Hafiz Peer Shabbir Ahmed has also expressed his utter displeasure at KCR failing to realise his 12 percent quota promise, with the legislation still pending with the Centre.

Muslim Quest For Political Heft

The minority vote share in seven assembly segments range from 50 percent to 85 percent and 20-25 percent in another seven segments in Hyderabad city. Muslims further make up to 15-20 percent in another 30 assembly segments outside Hyderabad. Thus, the Muslims in around 45 assembly segments play a decisive role.

Though KCR keeps appeasing Owaisi and AIMIM, his party BRS has largely failed to ensure due political representation to Muslims in proportion to their population. While this has been a persistent grouse, BRS has lent credence to such a perception by allotting only three seats for Muslims this time.

However, Muslims constitute around 13 percent of the state’s 3.20 crore electorate when Reddys with 6 percent have bagged 45 seats and Velamas, a much smaller community that KCR belongs to, secured seven seats. It is another matter that in large parts of the country, political parties, including Congress, are struggling to get Muslim candidates elected.

With three more weeks to go for campaigning to end, it is to be seen whether KCR can win back the Muslim support as in the past.

Gali Nagaraja is a senior journalist, formerly associated with The Hindu, The Times of India, and Hindustan Times for over three decades. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.