OPINION | TMC and BJP exchange fire ahead of West Bengal’s do-or-die 2026 election

The sudden escalation in ‘Didi-Dada’ warfare lends credence to reports of BJP-RSS plans to unleash unprecedented saffron leaders on Bengal to somehow coerce it into submission.

The heated exchanges between Mamata Banerjee and Narendra Modi – with Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, JP Nadda and Kiren Rijiju firing dutifully alongside their boss – over the attack on Bharatiya Janata Party Lok Sabha member, Khagen Murmu, is a precursor of the all-out war between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP predicted to break out in West Bengal around Diwali ahead of the do-or-die 2026 assembly elections.

The sudden escalation in ‘Didi-Dada’ warfare lends credence to reports of BJP-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh plans to unleash an unprecedented 1200 saffron leaders, including chief ministers, union ministers and members of parliament from all over India on the defiant opposition-ruled state immediately after the festival of lights to somehow coerce it into submission.

Questions over BJP’s prospects in West Bengal

The world’s largest political party with 140 million members certainly has the wherewithal to take on adversaries in two of the country’s most populous and electorally significant states simultaneously. There is no doubting the BJP’s capability in terms of money power and will power to wage all-out wars in Bihar -- where elections are in full swing – and West Bengal concurrently. But the outcome is a different matter altogether.

If a big question mark hangs over the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s prospects in Bihar, an even bigger question mark clouds the BJP’s impending campaign to wrest West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress in April-May.

Notably, Modi has often slammed governance, especially the law-and-order situation in West Bengal, while addressing rallies in the state. He lost no time in capitalising on Monday’s vicious attack on party MP Murmu and MLA Shankar Ghosh in north Bengal, which happens to be reeling under floods and landslides, by firing salvos immediately from Delhi through social media.

Modi’s quick response fortifies BJP’s rank and file

Modi’s lightning response is significant as any delay would have been a sign of weakness and taken a toll of the BJP’s morale in the run-up to the elections. Full marks to him for sending out a loud and clear message that the party leadership has taken the assault on its lawmakers very seriously. The vandalising of the Trinamool Congress headquarters in BJP-ruled Tripura is part of the same script.

Mamata’s not resting one her laurels

But if Modi is unsparing, Mamata isn’t pulling her punches either in the high stakes’ slugfest. When Modi offered condolences to six persons who died in the collapsed Dudhia iron bridge and criticised the state’s handling of the disaster, Mamata quickly raked up Gujarat’s Morbi bridge collapse in 2022 which claimed as many as 135 lives and cautioned Modi against preaching to West Bengal.

This week, Mamata characteristically also targeted Shah, Modi’s right-hand man, to fire up her cadres as the countdown for the poll battle has begun. Her unmistakable message is that she is a Bengali woman can singlehandedly tackle India’s two most powerful men. Sarcastically dubbing Shah as the “acting Prime Minister”, she advised him not to bother about Bengal but focus on Ladakh, Manipur and Cuttack – the quiet Orissa city now singed by Hindutva -- instead.

BJP picks a new strategist, Bhupendra Yadav

Mamata simply loves to lock horns with both Modi and Shah. Shah was Modi’s top general in the 2021 Bengal assembly battle. He had famously predicted 200 seats for the BJP but could win only 77. The party’s current strength is however 65 because a dozen BJP MLAs have defected to the Trinamool Congress. No other state has witnessed such mass desertion by BJP lawmakers and serial losses in byelections, underlining what a difficult nut to crack Bengal is for Hindutva forces.

Many are unaware that this time Shah won’t be the commander-in-chief of BJP forces – including the 1200 saffron leaders who will descend on Bengal post Diwali. Shah has been quietly replaced by Bhupender Yadav, Union Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. Recently, he was formally designated as Election-in-Charge of West Bengal – a key change which has largely gone unnoticed outside political circles.

Clearly, Yadav has been roped in because of his reputation to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. He is believed to be the architect of the BJP’s record win in the Maharashtra assembly elections last year barely four months after the party’s dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls. Yadav, who is originally from Alwar in Rajasthan, is also credited with winning Madhya Pradesh in 2023.

TMC outmatches BJP in the ground game

As things stand, the odds are stacked against the BJP in Bengal. Modi and Shah are still predominantly viewed as “outsiders” and Mamata has a distinct edge over them as “Bengal’s daughter”. Moreover, the BJP has done great disservice to itself by branding Bengali as a “Bangladeshi language”. It should have known better!

But an even bigger obstacle in the BJP’s path than all the shortcomings listed above put together is its acute organisational deficiency. In the 2024 parliamentary polls, out of 80,000 polling booths in the state, the BJP by its own admission in closed door meetings did not have the manpower to mark its presence in 70 percent of the booths! Can Yadav even dream of fixing that in six months?

(SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.