Eleven lessons for BJP from Karnataka elections for the grand finale in 2024

BJP drops 33 sitting MPs in first list of candidates for LS Polls

After voters of Karnataka handed over the biggest mandate to Congress since 1989, Bharatiya Janata Party needs to do serious brainstorming to ensure its house is in order ahead of crucial elections to Lok Sabha elections next year. BJP has planned a detailed analysis of the party's defeat in Karnataka Assembly polls including the role of national general secretary (organisation) BL Santhosh.

There are eleven clear lessons for the party from the electoral results.

Complacency Setting In: The presence of PM Modi that gives BJP campaigns a huge impetus is also making BJP cadres and leaders complacent. It is giving a false sense of belief to the party organisation that Modi’s campaign in the end will negate anti-incumbency of the MLAs and state government. Many MLAs, beneficiaries of the Modi magic, are riding on their luck.

Beware Of Congress Culture: BJP is increasingly becoming the new Congress. The high command culture is hampering growth of the party and new leadership at state-level. The 2014 victory of BJP was a bottom-up groundswell of support led by Narendra Modi in Gujarat with Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh, Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Strong local leadership provided a foundation for its victory.

Stir Neutral Voters: Hindutva doesn't alone win elections for BJP. Harcore, ideologically aligned voters cannot move the needle in favour of the party. The neutral and swing voters are the kingmakers and attracted to BJP on account of its development agenda, business and investment friendly policies, nationalism and strong leadership of PM Modi.

Use Brand Modi Optimally: The overexposure of PM Modi in each and every election risks reducing his shelf life. Like any brand’s / product’s life cycle, currently Modi is at maturity stage. If you sell a premium brand like Modi in a high-end store (general elections) as well as a kirana store (municipal elections) as the BJP does too often and needlessly too, then you are diluting his brand.

Corruption Worries: BJP is famous for punchy slogans. However, in Karnataka, the theme of “na khaunga na khaane dunga'' fell flat on its face as it couldn’t counter the “Pay CM 40%” campaign. These corruption allegations right under the Centre’s nose tarnish the double engine ki sarkar slogan.

Deliver, Don’t Just Promise: State governments need to deliver on governance and not just make mere promises. An incumbent, unlike the opposition, doesn't enjoy the leisure of only making promises. Tactics like undoing Muslim reservation, rejig of SC-ST quota were done at the last minute with an eye on polls. People naturally tend to ask what the government was doing in the past five years when you make promises like we will make a world class transport hub in Bengaluru like the WTC transport hub of New York.

Infra Focus And Votes: Infrastructure is visible development but it has a long gestation period. As happened with the India Shining campaign of 2004, the poor think that they do not generally benefit from these projects, and don’t really pay attention to jobs they create. So mega projects are not votecatchers. While rural areas today are still recovering from the aftermath of COVID, struggling to make ends meet, the lavish spend on infrastructure projects brings a sense of neglect and deprivation.

Female Fatigue Setting In: The female voter who has been taking independent voting decisions and backing the BJP due to schemes like Ujjwala and Awas yojanas,  Swachch Bharat, etc, backed the Congress in Karnataka (+11 percentage points compared to the saffron party). BJP needs to evaluate how and why guarantees of Congress appealed to the female voters. Price rise is becoming one of the big issues with rising cylinder prices and needs to be tackled immediately.

Local Issues Matter Too: One cannot thrust national issues on a state level election. Local factors play a key role, and instead of taking them head on and / or providing solutions, the adoption of a deflection strategy (towards national issues) by BJP left voters dejected. The centralisation of election campaigns with similar strategies in states whose local nuances they are not aware of can backfire as in Karnataka. Local issues will need to be given prominence, its “all states, one campaign” strategy is failing as local gets vocal.

Freebie Jibes Not Landing Well: BJP can't brush aside welfare politics as freebies. When they announce free cylinders / ration, they classify it as welfare politics, when opposition announces similar programs like unemployment allowance, free bijli / ration, they call it freebies. This hurts the ego of the poor, they have a rightful claim on the resources of the country and it is the duty of a welfare state to improve their ease of living.

Gujarat Not Replicable: The BJP and Modi-Shah duo cannot thrust the Gujarat model of elections on the rest of India. They know the state in and out, are popular there, and have the heft to carry out major surgery and deny tickets to whoever they wish. The excessive reliance on strategists while treating local leadership with suspicion isn’t helping. Arbitrariness in ticket distribution and retiring powerful leaders who built the party from scratch failed. The Gujarat model of electioneering can’t be replicated everywhere.

Can the BJP learn the right lessons from the Karnataka setback? We will know in a year’s time.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.