Delhi results: Why a win in the national capital is critical for BJP and PM Modi

After a 27-year exile, the BJP is set to storm back to power in Delhi.

The emphatic win for the BJP in the Delhi Assembly election not only ended its 27-year exile from power but also cemented the magical power of ‘Brand Modi’ and its strategic messaging which turned the tide in the party’s favour in a tough fight with Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP.

At the time of writing this article, the Bharatiya Janata Party had crossed the halfway mark comfortably by registering a victory in 40 assembly seats and leading in 8 more. Today's tally is significant for the saffron party; as in the 2013 elections, the party had secured 31 seats, falling short of the required majority. However, they couldn’t stake claim to form the government. The following election in 2015, saw the BJP’s tally reduce to just three seats while the AAP scored a huge win with 67 seats.

While it is hard to attribute a single factor behind BJP's historic win, however, it is hard to miss the ‘Modi factor’ that has been consistently delivering resounding results for the BJP — in 2024 Lok Sabha polls and Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra were the latest examples of it.

'Brand Modi' unblemished:

There is no denying that PM Modi’s popularity, which secured BJP’s win in Maharashtra and Haryana, also took the BJP to the victory line in Delhi, agreed political analysts who called “Modi ki Guarantee” the biggest weapon in the party’s arsenal.
The win in Delhi which came for the first time after 1998, carries the stamp of a strong pro-incumbency wave in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Central government.

Why Delhi matters to the BJP: 

The foremost reason is prestige. The saffron party has not been in power in Delhi for the past 27 years. The party was last in power in the Capital from 1993 to 1998. It lost the 1998 Assembly polls to the Congress, with many analysts blaming the high price of onions to be the reason behind the BJP’s loss. The Delhi election is also important to the BJP as it sets the tone for the other elections, starting Bihar later this year.

When Delhi serves as a 'mirror' to the world:

A good outing in Delhi is not merely about a larger political messaging. Delhi attracts the attention of the nation and the world, disproportionate to its size. It is also home to many who migrate from Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and even far-away Bihar. As Delhi is representative of the Hindi heartland, the BJP was keen to win these votes, in order to show that it is the true image of the Hindi heartland.

When BJP promised to offer more than 'just freebies':

The party was quick to learn from its 2020 mistake when it criticised AAP’s welfare schemes as 'revadis', a move that backfired. In a move to position itself not merely as a party offering freebies, BJP altered the grand narrative and couched the schemes as one needed for Going into 2025 polls, the party assured voters that all free schemes would continue and went a step further by promising Rs 2,500 per month for women—trumping Kejriwal’s Rs 2,100 pledge. This shift was a masterstroke, helping BJP chip away at AAP’s core vote bank in slums and attracting women voters, whose turnout outpaced men in 41 Delhi constituencies.