Punjab floods, J&K landslides, Himachal cloudbursts, Yamuna rising: What's behind north India's 'wettest' fortnight

Punjab flood

Rain-lashed north India has witnessed its wettest two-week spell in at least 14 years, as per available data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) since 2012. Between August 22 and September 4, the region received nearly three times the normal rainfall, leading to extreme weather events across several states.

From devastating cloudbursts on the Vaishno Devi route in Jammu and Kashmir, floods in Punjab, and the Yamuna rising to its third-highest recorded level in Delhi, to landslides in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the impact has been severe.

In just 14 days, north India recorded 205.3 mm of rain against a normal average of 73.1 mm, accounting for a massive 35% of the region’s typical four-month monsoon quota. With such intense rainfall, meteorologists suggest the region could be on track for its wettest monsoon in nearly four decades, since 1988, according to a report by The Times of India.

Monsoon surplus surge

Since the start of this year’s monsoon on June 1, northwest India has already received 691.7 mm of rain, which is nearly 37% higher than the seasonal norm. Even if rainfall for the remaining weeks of September remains around average, the total is expected to cross 750 mm by the end of the monsoon. That would make 2025 the second-wettest monsoon in north India in the past 50 years, trailing only 1988 (813.5 mm) and surpassing 1994 (737 mm).

The spike has been most striking in the past fortnight. On August 22, the region’s seasonal rainfall surplus stood at 11.6%. Within two weeks, it shot up to almost 37%.

Why did the rains intensify?

According to IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the deluge was the result of rare back-to-back interactions between two weather systems, western disturbances carrying moist winds from near the Mediterranean converged with monsoon currents from the east. The first such interaction occurred from August 23 to 27, followed by another from August 29 that was expected to persist until September 5.

Such interactions are known to unleash very heavy rainfall and cloudbursts in the western Himalayan states, the most devastating example being Kedarnath deluge in June 2013. While such two-system convergences are uncommon in the peak monsoon period of July-Aug, back-to-back occurrences are extremely rare.

The distribution of rainfall in the two-week spell has been equally dramatic. Punjab was the worst hit, with 388% surplus rain in the first week and 454% in the second. Haryana, Delhi, and Chandigarh logged 325% excess rainfall till September 3, while Himachal Pradesh reported 314%. West Rajasthan (285%), Jammu & Kashmir (240%), and Uttarakhand (190%) also saw severe surpluses, leading to flash floods, landslides, and heavy disruptions to daily life.