BUSINESS
Nancy needles the dragon
Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan brings to mind Mao Ze Dong’s famous saying: ‘the international situation has now reached a new turning point. There are two winds in the world today, the east wind and the west wind. There is a Chinese saying, ‘Either the east wind prevails over the west wind, or the west wind prevails over the east wind’
BUSINESS
Rural jobs are coming back
July saw a steep fall in demand for work under MGNREGA
BUSINESS
Indian manufacturing recovery strongest in Asia
July PMI reading shows higher manufacturing growth, lower inflation
BUSINESS
Monetary tightening all very well, but what about massive fiscal deficits?
A study by Moody’s Analytics says that with the re-opening of the Asian economies, demand is set to rise, leading to a resurgence of inflation
BUSINESS
The fine print in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update
IMF: ‘As advanced economies have raised interest rates and conditions have tightened globally, debt vulnerabilities and financing risks are on the rise for emerging market issuers’
BUSINESS
If the Fed chair doesn’t understand inflation, who does?
How are inflation expectations formed? Did Volcker really kill inflation, or was it the decimation of the trade unions? New research on these questions throws up interesting perspectives on inflation
BUSINESS
Recession storm clouds gather over the West, but there’s a silver lining for India
The Flash PMIs for the Eurozone and the US indicate a looming recession, but that may not be a bad thing for India
BUSINESS
Stage set for a bounce in markets, says survey of global fund managers
Earlier this month, global growth optimism, cash levels with fund managers, outlook on profits and allocation to equities were all at levels even worse than during the Lehman crisis, paving the way for a rally
BUSINESS
RBI State of the Economy report: Growth resilient, inflation coming down
The Indian equity market has always traded at a premium to its peers and if indeed the outlook for the economy and inflation is as good as the State of the Economy report says it is, then corporate earnings will hold up, supporting equities
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Tricky landing
Will the economy manage to navigate through the macro challenges in one piece? That remains a tough question to answer as inflation remains a big unknown, be it the US or India
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Risks galore
Main sources of uncertainty emanate from advanced economies, while emerging markets face the consequences
BUSINESS
There is no wage-price spiral in India
Real rural wage growth has been very low, sometimes negative, in the last eight years
BUSINESS
The Red Queen, nihilists and other insights from the MPC minutes
Michael Patra’s forecast of growth averaging between 6-7 percent this fiscal year and the next is one cue that the markets need to take into account and adjust their earnings estimates accordingly
BUSINESS
Why central banks may have to raise interest rates sharply to lower inflation
The Bank for International Settlements says, "in an unequal society, income is concentrated in the hands of a few, whose consumption is high and largely insensitive to interest rate". That could limit the effectiveness of monetary policy
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | When Jerome Powell sneezes…
The prime concern of the Street is whether the Fed will go too far to keep inflation on a tight leash, potentially setting the stage for recession
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day | The last time US financial conditions were this tight is in May 2020
The Chicago Fed’s Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index is hovering around positive territory, which indicates financial conditions are about to get tight
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Humpty Dumpty
In today’s edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: Retail rocks, where CGD firms stand, inflation headache, GuruSpeak and more
BUSINESS
Peak inflation may be behind us, but how long will inflation stay sticky?
The good news is that core inflation has come down month-on-month, despite strong growth momentum
BUSINESS
The reason for the sell-off in the markets, in one table
A sharp upward revision of the US Fed’s likely rate increases has led to the fall in global markets
BUSINESS
Fear of the Fed
A research paper by Lawrence Summers finds that the disinflation the US Fed has to achieve today is similar to that of the Volcker years, which means a recession is on the cards
BUSINESS
RBI consumer survey | Buyers look to cut down spending on non-essentials
In May 2022, only 27.5 percent of respondents said they will increase spending on discretionary items in the year ahead. In contrast, 34.1 percent said they will reduce spending
BUSINESS
Capacity utilisation in March quarter highest since Q4 FY19
While increased capacity utilisation is a sign of economic recovery, it also raises pricing power, allowing firms to pass on input cost increases
BUSINESS
Despite hike, real repo rate is around the same level as a year ago
If we consider a positive real policy rate as an indication of normal policy, we have a long way to go and growth will continue to be supported by loose monetary conditions
BUSINESS
GDP data | Economy limps back, with capex as crutch
GDP numbers show weakness in private consumption, which grew by a mere 1.8 percent year-on-year during the quarter
