BUSINESS
What powered GDP growth in the March 2023 quarter?
The momentum in capex could be the beginning of the long-awaited corporate capex cycle while growth in the construction sector will support jobs and consumption
BUSINESS
Urban unemployment down, but a lot of unpaid helpers
PLFS survey shows that while urban unemployment is lower compared to pre-pandemic times, the quality of jobs is worse
BUSINESS
Flash PMIs show two-speed global economy -- and a dilemma for central banks
For the US, UK and the Eurozone, the Flash Manufacturing PMIs for May are all below 50, which means they have shrunk compared to the previous month. In contrast, the Flash PMI for the services sector shows robust expansion
BUSINESS
Could rising currency in circulation be a reason for the withdrawal of Rs 2000 notes?
Banknotes in circulation are now 15.1 percent of money supply, compared to 13.7 percent in the September 2016 quarter
BUSINESS
Is there a hint of policy change in the RBI Bulletin’s State of the Economy report?
Retail inflation in the first quarter of FY24 is likely to be lower than forecast and bond markets are pricing in a shift of stance by the Monetary Policy Committee
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: From the micro to the macro
Disinflation has created a benign macro environment, but much of it is already priced into corporate earnings estimates
BUSINESS
Falling commodity prices buoy trade balance
The biggest fall in imports has been in vegetable oils, fertilisers, coal, all of which are now at much lower prices from a year ago
POLITICS
Voting patterns are very different in state and national elections
Still, the debacle in Karnataka may force state governments as well as the centre to boost spending on social support schemes in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Immaculate disinflation?
The market's hope of a painless disinflation has no precedent
TRENDS
Manipur: the horrors of identity politics
This is not the first time that ethnic violence has flared up in Manipur. The roots of the conflict run deep and are exacerbated by a lack of jobs
BUSINESS
Bangladesh vs India per capita GDP: Setting the record straight
The lesson to be learnt is not from Bangladesh, but from Pakistan. Both India and Bangladesh had a much lower per capita GDP compared to Pakistan in 1990. Now, Pakistan’s per capita GDP is much lower than both India’s and Bangladesh’s
BUSINESS
The slow run on US banks: Deposits in decline even before SVB fiasco
Even before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, total deposits in US commercial banks had been falling
BUSINESS
Karnataka election 2023: The dangerous consequences of gorging on ‘revdis’
The Opposition’s addiction to revdis is bad for the nation’s economic and political health
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: US Imperial Preference or Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere?
The US is ditching the free trade, free market policy it has been preaching for decades, in favour of industrial policy and trade blocs
BUSINESS
Giving up China-nirbharta is easier said than done
India’s trade deficit with China increased by 13.2 percent in 2022-23, despite the government’s attempts to correct the huge trade imbalance
BUSINESS
Is demography really destiny?
A low dependency ratio provides a tailwind for growth, but much depends on ensuring productive jobs for the working population
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: All is well
The low Vix indicates the markets are looking forward to inflation peaking and rate cuts following. But the outcome may well be stagflation
BUSINESS
Migrating abroad for work is a no-brainer
It would take decades for non-migrants to match the income gains of migrants to a high income country, says a World Bank report
BUSINESS
Dangerous games nations play: The economic fallout of higher military spending
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that military spending jumped in 2022 due to the Ukraine war. But there are also longer-term trends
BUSINESS
What slowdown? Developed economies blaze a growth trail, beat rate hikes
The Flash Composite PMIs show that the US, the UK and the Eurozone saw growth accelerate this month. That should lead to more monetary tightening
BUSINESS
RBI paper: Signs of disinflation, but demand-pull inflation gaining traction
With growth continuing to be robust, it’s no wonder that demand pull inflation is rising. That is why the RBI paper says the RBI must be ‘in readiness to address the rising sensitivity of inflation to demand pull’
BUSINESS
'Amerindia' in the making? India's bonds with the US extend beyond politics
In the last four years, India’s holdings of US Treasuries have gone up by 60 percent
BUSINESS
Many shades of inflation: The assault on rural wages
Real rural wage growth has been negative or marginally positive since 1998, except for a brief period between 2010 and 2014
BUSINESS
India third largest contributor to global growth, but way behind China
China’s contribution to global GDP growth in 2023 is likely to be 23.8 percent, against India’s 6.6 percent, according to IMF projections
