Infosys' Q2 nos may not impact Nifty much: Anil Manghnani

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Anil Manghnani, Modern Shares & Stock Brokers says over the last six-eight quarters, the market has moved beyond Infosys. "In the past, if Infosys numbers were great, the market would have a big move or vise versa, but that is not the case anymore. A lot of other stocks support the market, even if Infosys is not great. There are other stocks that go up and down. I don’t think there will be too much effect on the Nifty," he elaborates.

For today, he says, 5,750 will be the resistance. "But, from an overall point of view, I still believe 5,800-5,900 is the key zone or key range for the market," he adds.

Below is the edited transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy.

Q: What is your Nifty strategy for the day?

A: We had a good bounce. I think 5,750 will be the resistance, if you are just looking for the day. But, from an overall point of view, I still believe 5,800-5,900 is the key zone or key range for the market where even if it had to go then come back from there wouldn’t do too much damage to the chart. It would just tell me that okay the market had a fair run and it needs to pullback a little bit. So, just for the day 5,750 is the resistance.

A lot will depend on Infosys. But over the last six-eight quarters, the market has moved beyond Infosys. In the past, if Infosys numbers were great, the market would have a big move or vise versa, but that is not the case anymore. A lot of other stocks support the market, even if Infosys is not great. There are other stocks that go up and down. I don’t think there will be too much effect on the Nifty.

For the market, 5,750 today and 5,800-5,900, from an overall trend point of view, remain the major levels.

Q: How is the CNX-IT looking technically? Is it looking stronger than the Nifty relatively or weaker?

A: I would have to say weaker than the Nifty. You have to understand, over the last one month, the Nifty has done really well, beta has done well. So, given the fact that the rupee also appreciated quite significantly in the last month or so, there is no surprise that IT hasn’t performed. Many of the stocks were about a month back at the same levels.

If you are comparing to the Nifty, clearly they have not performed. TCS , for example, after hitting a new life high around Rs 1,430, it is still sub Rs 1,300. Clearly, it is underperforming. Even Wipro went all the way to Rs 390, it is still at Rs 358. I think the only one that has probably managed to hold onto its overall gains has been HCL Tech . That was around Rs 590, it is still at about Rs 575.

As a sector, I think more of the action has shifted to the midcaps. Satyam is doing well. Tech Mahindra has done well. But in the largecap, clearly the money has moved out in the last month or so.

Q: Within the banking space, which are the stocks that you would bet on now from the heavyweights?

A: I think you still have to assume that the unfinished target on the Bank Nifty is about 11,900. It has come off from about 11,600-11,700. But as long as it is holding 11,200, it will still have that potential to go back up.

You would have to believe that the leader will still be ICICI Bank . It has an unfinished target of about Rs 1,125. But you could also see some of the PSUs play catch up. If you look at the move, yesterday, if I am not mistaken, OBC hit a downward support and then bounced sharply.

With the Bank Nifty at a 52-week high, SBI is nowhere near Rs 2,475. That’s still a Rs 200 move away from the February highs. So, even if it had to play catch up to the rest of the market and reach its previous high, that’s an 8-10 percent move. So, I think it will be a mixed bag. But I would like to see the PSU banks actually catch up.