Taiwan’s civil defence overhaul aims to win US trust amid rising China threat

Taiwan conducted civil defense drill (Representative Image)

Taiwan has conducted its most realistic civil defence drill since becoming a democracy, seeking to demonstrate to Washington that it is serious about strengthening its ability to resist Chinese aggression — both militarily and through society-wide preparedness, the Financial Times reported.

Civilians step up in wartime scenario simulation

In Tainan, southern Taiwan, emergency services and civil society organisations staged a wartime disaster simulation — involving a port explosion, followed by an earthquake and tsunami — without military assistance. The scenario aimed to reflect what could happen during a real conflict when military resources are focused elsewhere.

“If the military needs to fight, it will not be able to support [disaster response], so the civilian sector needs to be able to do it on their own,” said a senior official, highlighting a core objective of the exercise.

President Lai Ching-te has championed this civilian readiness push as part of a broader national defence strategy. “We do not dare not to prepare,” he said, invoking a proverb that warns against relying on hope in the face of danger.

Lai promises more defence spending and stronger deterrence

Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has ramped up military manoeuvres near the island. In response, Lai’s administration has pledged to increase defence spending from 2.5% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2026, funded through a special budget expected to allocate up to $10 billion for US arms purchases.

The shift comes with other notable changes: reinstating military trials in peacetime, cracking down on Chinese infiltration, tightening cross-Strait exchanges, and executing unscripted military snap drills — all signs of a more proactive posture.

Doubt still lingers in Washington

Despite these efforts, scepticism persists in the US Trump and Elbridge Colby — his nominee for under-secretary of defence for policy — have publicly questioned Taiwan’s commitment, with Colby suggesting military spending should rise to 10% of GDP. Trump has accused Taiwan of freeriding on American protection, likening the US to an “insurance policy” Taipei should “pay for.”

A U.S. official acknowledged “a ton has changed” in Taiwan since the war in Ukraine and Lai’s election last May. But the broader American view remains cautious. Analysts say Taiwan’s military still suffers from undertraining, outdated doctrines, and logistical weaknesses.

Michael Hunzeker, a Taiwan military expert at George Mason University, said, “Lai seems to be making positive steps in a positive direction, but we have seen this before. It really is incumbent on the Lai administration and the Ministry of National Defense to prove that this time it’s for real, because talk is cheap.”