Rakhine Corridor sparks power struggle in Bangladesh: China moves, US counters, India watches | Explained

February 2024 photo of Myanmar's nationals and Border Guard Police (BGP) personnel, who crossed the Bangladesh-Myanmar border to seek shelter in Bangladesh, being escorted back to their country by ships at Cox's Bazar.

The proposed Rakhine Corridor – a “humanitarian” passage from south-eastern Bangladesh into Myanmar’s conflict-ridden Rakhine State – has ignited a significant political and military standoff within Bangladesh. Interim Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus's endorsement of the corridor met with vehement opposition from Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman, who deems it a threat to national sovereignty, and termed it a “bloody corridor”.

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Tensions between Bangladesh's interim government and its military leadership have escalated over the Rakhine Corridor proposal. General Waker-Uz-Zaman has publicly condemned the corridor, labelling it a "bloody corridor" and asserting that it could jeopardize Bangladesh's national security and regional stability. He criticized the interim government's decision-making process, particularly the lack of consultation with the military on such a critical issue. In response to the backlash, Yunus' administration has made a hasty retreat from the proposal, highlighting the deepening civil-military divide.

What is the Rakhine Corridor?

The Rakhine Corridor refers to a proposed humanitarian and logistical passage connecting southeastern Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar region to Myanmar’s Rakhine State, a conflict-ridden area that has witnessed years of unrest, particularly against the Rohingya Muslim minority. The concept gained traction amid renewed fighting in Myanmar and growing calls from international human rights groups to allow humanitarian access to civilians trapped in the region.

The idea is to establish a protected, internationally monitored route that would enable the delivery of aid, evacuation of wounded civilians, and potentially the repatriation of Rohingya refugees who fled to Bangladesh after the 2017 ethnic cleansing campaign by Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw). The corridor would likely be coordinated by the United Nations or an international coalition, with logistical and security support from cooperating countries.

However, while presented as a humanitarian initiative, the corridor is highly contentious due to its geostrategic location and the players involved. Geographically, the corridor would cut across territory under the control of Myanmar’s junta and armed ethnic militias, making it not only risky but also politically sensitive.

Bangladesh’s military establishment fears that such a corridor—especially one initiated without its consent or involvement—could be used to establish a foreign-controlled buffer zone within its immediate neighbourhood, potentially undermining its sovereignty and regional influence.

China’s strategic calculations

China views Rakhine State as a linchpin in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with significant investments like the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and oil and gas pipelines. These projects provide Beijing with critical access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca. The establishment of a humanitarian corridor backed by Western powers could be perceived by China as an encroachment on its sphere of influence, potentially prompting Beijing to bolster its support for Myanmar's military junta and increase its presence in the region.

The US perspective

The United States has expressed support for the Rakhine Corridor, viewing it as an opportunity to expand humanitarian access and counter China's growing influence in the Bay of Bengal. By facilitating aid to Myanmar's pro-democracy movement, the US aims to establish a foothold in a region where China's presence is increasing. However, this approach risks entangling Bangladesh in broader geopolitical rivalries and may strain Dhaka's delicate balancing act between major powers.

India’s concerns

India, sharing borders with both Bangladesh and Myanmar, is closely monitoring developments related to the Rakhine Corridor. New Delhi's primary concerns revolve around regional stability, the potential for increased Chinese influence near its northeastern borders, and the implications for its Act East Policy. The corridor could also affect India's strategic interests in the Bay of Bengal and its efforts to counterbalance China's presence in the region.