Pakistan’s 80% agriculture at risk if India tweaks Indus flow | Islamabad's water peril explained

Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus River system has become a growing strategic vulnerability, with a new global study warning that Islamabad faces acute risks of water shortages as India now holds the ability to alter river flows within its technical capacity.

According to the Ecological Threat Report 2025 by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), around 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on water from the Indus basin. The report was released months after India placed the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack in April, which was carried out by Pakistan-based militants.

The suspension effectively freed New Delhi from its treaty-bound obligation to share the waters of the western rivers -- Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab -- with Pakistan.

India’s water advantage

The IEP report observed that while India cannot fully divert or block river flows, “even minor adjustments in dam operations at critical times, like summers, could significantly impact Pakistan's densely populated plains, which rely on the Indus basin for 80% of irrigated agriculture.”

Pakistan’s inability to store more than 30 days of river water makes it dangerously exposed to such fluctuations. The report highlighted that “Pakistan's storage capacity is limited to roughly 30 days of river flow, making it vulnerable to seasonal shortages.”

This vulnerability was exposed in May when India carried out reservoir flushing at the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River without notifying Islamabad. The move triggered flood-like conditions in parts of Pakistan, revealing the leverage New Delhi now enjoys over downstream water regulation following the IWT suspension.

“India proceeded unilaterally, aiming to boost its dams' storage and power generation capacity now that it considers itself unbound by IWT limits. The immediate impact was dramatic: sections of the Chenab in Pakistan's Punjab ran dry for a few days, as India's dam gates were shut, then released sediment-laden torrents when opened,” the IEP report noted.

Limited storage, major consequences

Pakistan’s failure to build sufficient dam infrastructure has left it vulnerable to both drought and flooding. The IEP warned that “even small disruptions, if timed poorly, can severely affect agriculture.”

“For Pakistan, the danger is acute. If India were truly to cut off or significantly reduce Indus flows, Pakistan's densely populated plains would face severe water shortages, especially in winter and dry seasons,” it said.

The report also clarified that India’s dams on the western rivers are primarily run-of-the-river projects, which have limited storage capacity. However, the timing of gate operations allows India to control downstream water flow during key agricultural periods, giving it a significant strategic advantage.

Regional ripples: Afghanistan adds to Pakistan’s woes

Pakistan’s water insecurity is not limited to its eastern border. Earlier this week, Afghanistan announced plans to build a dam on the Kunar River, which will further restrict Pakistan’s access to cross-border water resources. The move followed weeks of armed clashes between Afghan Taliban forces and the Pakistani military, which left hundreds dead.

The Taliban’s Supreme Leader said that the project to dam the Kunar River would begin “as soon as possible,” signalling growing regional pressure on Islamabad.

Water, security and diplomacy collide

The IEP report also linked India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty to wider geopolitical consequences, noting that it coincided with Pakistan’s recent defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. “India's suspension of the IWT is closely linked to Pakistan's defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, as the treaty would likely make India more cautious in using water as a pretext for conflict,” the report stated.

Riyadh’s backing is seen as an attempt to bolster Pakistan amid growing regional isolation. However, the report emphasised that “India's unilateral actions” on water did not trigger “armed conflict” between the two countries.

India’s assertive use of water rights

For decades, India had underutilised its share of water under the IWT, allowing significant volumes from the eastern rivers -- Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej -- to flow into Pakistan unused. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, this approach has shifted decisively.

Projects like the Shahpurkandi Dam on the Ravi, completed in 2024, and the Ujh Dam on a Ravi tributary have been designed to ensure India uses its full share of water. Simultaneously, hydropower projects such as Kishanganga and Ramganga have been expanded within permissible limits.

The IEP report concluded that “the IWT has shifted from a framework of cooperation to a source of growing contention, reflecting the deterioration in India-Pakistan relations.”

With the treaty in abeyance and Islamabad’s infrastructure lagging behind, Pakistan’s food and water security now depend heavily on New Delhi’s strategic choices. The report warned that “Pakistan’s water security is increasingly at the mercy of India’s decisions. With limited storage and rising tensions, even small changes in river flows could have catastrophic effects on its agriculture and food supply.”

A crisis of Pakistan’s own making

While Islamabad has blamed India for “weaponising water,” analysts say Pakistan’s own governance failures lie at the core of its crisis. Chronic underinvestment in reservoirs, mismanagement of irrigation systems, and political instability have left the country ill-equipped to handle even moderate changes in river inflows.

As climate change intensifies and India strengthens its upstream control, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland may soon face its most severe challenge yet, not from war, but from water.