Hamas wants to stay: How the group is shaping its future in Gaza under the cease-fire

Hamas consolidates power during ceasefire

Two weeks into a US-brokered cease-fire, Hamas is making clear it does not intend to vanish. Rather than accept being sidelined, the movement is pressing mediators for a role in Gaza’s future governance and pushing for a prolonged cease-fire to rebuild influence and institutions. That stance directly clashes with the Trump administration’s 20-point plan, which demands that Hamas give up power “in any form,” and it has complicated talks about reconstruction, security and who will administer the enclave, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Signs on the ground and why they matter

Hamas has not been passive. Small attacks and local skirmishes continue, and the group has used the cease-fire window to reorganise fighters, reappoint commanders and move weapons and personnel. Those moves serve two purposes: they signal that Hamas remains a force to be reckoned with, and they shore up its control over parts of Gaza ahead of any political settlement. Arab mediators warn that these actions show either limits to the political leadership’s control over fighters or deliberate pressure tactics aimed at strengthening Hamas’s bargaining position.

The diplomatic tug of war

Diplomacy now sits on a knife edge. US envoys, senior officials and a clutch of Arab intermediaries are trying to lock in the cease-fire and build a roadmap for reconstruction that excludes Hamas from power. Israel and some Arab states favour a model that keeps Hamas out, at least initially, while other mediators worry about the practicality and the humanitarian cost of sidelining the group. Proposals on the table range from a temporary division of Gaza into Hamas and non-Hamas zones to an internationally supervised reconstruction in areas cleared of militants.

The tricky politics of reconstruction

Rebuilding Gaza is more than bricks and roads; it is also about who administers aid, who provides security and where displaced civilians will return. Plans floated by some Israeli and US officials envision a phased reconstruction focused on areas under Israeli control, with international peacekeepers and donor money channelled to ensure projects do not benefit Hamas. Arab states and local mediators fear that carving Gaza into halves or conditioning aid on political outcomes could create long-term instability and humanitarian hardship.

What comes next

For now the cease-fire holds, but the coming weeks are decisive. If Hamas can consolidate influence during the lull and thwart efforts to exclude it, it will emerge from the truce stronger. If mediators and international backers succeed in building a credible, enforceable alternative to Hamas rule and offer reconstruction that wins popular support, the group’s grip could be challenged. Either way, the situation underlines a hard truth: military pauses change the tempo of conflict, but resolving who governs Gaza will require sustained diplomacy and painful compromises.

Hamas’s drive to remain relevant during the cease-fire shows how fragile any negotiated outcome will be. Negotiators must balance the urgent need to rebuild and stabilise Gaza with the political reality that the group commanding armed support inside the enclave will press to keep at least some of its power. The coming weeks will test whether international efforts can translate a cease-fire into a durable political settlement—or simply set the stage for the next confrontation.