Decoding Hurricane Melissa: Where it’s headed, when winds hit, and what to watch next

Tracking Melissa’s destructive Caribbean path

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and heavy rains on Tuesday across Jamaica and eastern Cuba. According to estimates by officials, about 50,000 people in Jamaica have been displaced as torrential rains flooded low-lying areas. The strength of the storm made it one of the most powerful hurricanes hitting the region this year, the New York Times reported.

Trajectory and impact zones of storms

Melissa was about 108 miles west-southwest of Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, moving northeast at 9 mph. Montego Bay, Kingston, and Spanish Town sustained widespread damage, including torn roofs, fallen trees, and power outages. Satellite imagery showed a well-defined eye indicative of peak storm intensity. Meteorologists forecast that Melissa will weaken slightly as it heads toward the Bahamas later this week.

Why forecasting intensity remains difficult

And though scientists have refined storm-tracking models, predicting intensity remains a difficult task. Rapid intensification events-such as Melissa's leap from Category 1 to 4 in just 48 hours-are happening more often across warmer oceans. Such sudden strengthening, consistent with the expected influence of climate change, continues to be fuelled by record-high sea surface temperatures.

Economic toll and challenges in recovery

Meanwhile, Jamaica's heavily tourism-dependent economy faces an uphill struggle. The timing of the storm—just before the winter tourist season—could cut into as much as a third of the island's revenues over the year. Roads and airports have been closed, while the government has readied shelters and aid distribution. Cuba also suffered severe damage, especially in the areas of Santiago and Bayamo, where the winds exceeded 100 mph.

Climate change and increasing hurricane intensity

Scientists warn hurricanes such as Melissa are becoming stronger and wetter because of climate change. Warmer ocean temperatures mean storms carry more moisture and move more slowly, increasing the risk of flooding. Like the rapid intensification of Hurricane Beryl and Helene last year, Melissa's rapid intensification underlines how global warming is reshaping tropical storm patterns.

US preparedness and policy shifts

Analysts pointed out that the federal agencies responsible for disaster response, such as NOAA and FEMA, are operating with reduced staffing under the Trump administration. This has called into question preparedness for future storms, with the US facing an increased probability of major hurricane landfalls this season.