China’s submarine surge and the US struggle to keep pace

Locals watch as workers drag a military submarine into a port in Dalian, northeast China's Liaoning province. (Courtesy: Reuters file photo)

After decades of incremental growth, China is on track to be a world-class submarine fleet. Its new nuclear-powered models, like the Type 095 in development, should be quieter and faster and feature vertical launch tubes for cruise missiles. Non-nuclear Yuan-class boats, using air-independent propulsion, can stay underwater longer and be more covert. That is a revolutionary shift from Beijing's earlier, noisy designs, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The Pacific chessboard

China's submarine bases now reach as far as Liaoning to Hainan, stretching its navy's influence into the South China Sea and beyond. Blockade and invasion drills off Taiwan highlight the strategic value subs would play in any conflict, from cutting US supply lines to encircling the island. The US has deployed about 60% of its submarine fleet in the Indo-Pacific, forward-deployed based on Guam, and shifted Virginia-class attack subs into the theatre to keep deterrence intact.

Washington's production woes

The US Navy is still leading in stealth and technology, but manufacturing shortfalls erode that edge. Maintenance backlogs have kept nearly a third of attack subs offline, and only 1.2 are currently being built a year—half the pace needed to grow the force and meet Aukus commitments to Australia. The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program already is two years behind, and the next-generation SSN(X) attack sub won't exist until the 2040s.

Allies and the submarine arms race

Local navies are developing their own fleets. Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia are developing submarine fleets, with Vietnam and Taiwan holding minor deterrent assets. Singapore just bought German-built subs, and the Philippines has been eyeing membership in the club. With France and the UK, these countries might form a wartime coalition to safeguard sea routes and block China's naval expansion.

Industrial advantage and strategic risks

China has a strategic strength in shipbuilding capacity. Its gargantuan commercial shipyards allow it to mass-produce diesel subs, making up for US quality with numbers. Experts warn that those dynamics would skew the odds beneath the waves, preventing the US from projecting power. Trump officials have cited the challenge, underscoring that barring production increases, Washington's strategy of deterrence is "a very difficult problem."

What a conflict could be

In a Taiwanese conflict, Chinese diesel-electric subs would stalk the coastal seas, while nuclear ships tried to interdict US reinforcements. US attack subs, with Tomahawk missiles and advanced sensors, would try to sink Chinese warships, strike land targets, and sever southern supply lines. The stealth and range of these vessels are the backbone of any Pacific war strategy, contributing to what is already the world's most important undersea arms race.