Brazil positions itself as a winner in Trump’s global trade war

Brazil emerges as a beneficiary amid Trump's global trade war

In the thick of a deepening global trade war, Brazil is seizing its moment. With US tariffs targeting China and new duties expected on a broader list of countries, Brazilian exporters and policymakers are betting that their resource-rich economy can step in to fill the gaps—especially in China’s vast market, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Brazil steps in as China turns away from US goods
Chinese buyers have already ramped up purchases of Brazilian soybeans, bypassing US suppliers hit by President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs. The shift is part of a broader trend: from poultry and cotton to iron ore and beef, Brazilian goods are finding new traction in global markets, especially as Beijing targets American agricultural producers in retaliation.

The result? Brazil’s commodities-heavy benchmark stock index is up 9% this year—while the S&P 500 has fallen by over 4%.

A rising trade power amid shifting alliances
With the US poised to unveil another round of tariffs, Brazil hopes to gain even more. The country is the largest footwear exporter outside Asia, and industry leaders are looking to replace Chinese-made shoes on US shelves. While Brazil is not immune to potential US tariffs, economists note that the long-standing US trade surplus with Brazil could provide a buffer.

“Trump is reshuffling trade, and this is opening up opportunities,” said André Perfeito, chief economist at São Paulo’s APCE consulting firm.

Deepening ties with China and Japan
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration is expanding economic diplomacy as well. In a recent trip to Japan, he and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba agreed to open Japanese markets to Brazilian beef—potentially eroding US dominance in that sector. “Trump is not the world’s sheriff,” da Silva said. “We need to overcome protectionism.”

Meanwhile, Chinese investment in Brazil continues to grow. Since 2009, China has been Brazil’s top trading partner and has poured more than $70 billion into the country. Chinese firms now own about 10% of Brazil’s electricity infrastructure and are building major ports, roads, and railroads—part of an expansive footprint stretching from agriculture to energy and manufacturing.

China’s stockpiling boosts prices for Brazilian goods
Ahead of expected tariff hikes, Chinese processors rushed to buy Brazilian soybeans, with early 2025 purchases far exceeding levels from the year before. That demand has lifted prices: the premium for Brazilian soybeans jumped 70% last month and reached a three-year high.

Brazilian exports of chicken and eggs have also surged—up 9% and 20%, respectively—helped by the country’s exemption from the bird flu outbreak affecting global trade and China’s new 15% tariff on US poultry.

“China will likely buy more grains and protein from Brazil, reducing US demand,” said Plinio Nastari, head of Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Datagro.

Strategic challenges for Washington
The expanding Brazil-China trade axis is drawing concern in Washington, particularly as Chinese companies increase their control over strategic infrastructure in Latin America. US officials have warned about the potential military applications of Chinese projects such as a deep-water port in Peru and a satellite-tracking station in Argentina.

One major example is China Railway’s involvement in the Fiol railroad—a key project to connect Brazil’s farming heartland to export hubs. “China has both the international expertise and the capacity to invest,” said Brazil’s transportation minister, Renan Filho.

US market still holds promise for Brazilian exporters
Despite stronger ties with China, some Brazilian industries are eyeing the US for growth. The domestic footwear sector, which benefits from a robust supply of leather and existing export infrastructure, is poised to expand if Chinese shoe imports face new tariffs.

“If there are no significant tariffs on Brazilian products, we see an opportunity for growth in exports to the USA., which is already our main destination,” said Haroldo Ferreira, head of Brazil’s footwear industry group, Abicalçados.

As global trade realigns under the weight of Trump’s tariffs, Brazil is capitalizing on the moment—emerging not only as a key alternative to China and the US, but also as a rising power with global ambitions. With deepening ties to both Beijing and Washington, and a wealth of resources to offer, the country could find itself playing a central role in the next phase of the global economy.