Chinese smartphones to retain dominance in India despite slower volume growth in 2025

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Chinese smartphone brands are expected to retain their stronghold in the Indian market, cornering around 75 percent of shipments in 2025, a slight increase from 74 percent in 2024. Analysts highlighted that this dominance has been a consistent trend since 2020.

The Indian smartphone market is likely to experience modest growth, with shipments likely to surpass 160 million units in 2025.

They added that Chinese brands’ 2025 strategy to expand offline presence and focus on mid-range and premium segments will sustain their volume market share and strengthen their value share.

Karn Chauhan, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told Moneycontrol that the sustained dominance of Chinese brands is because of their competitive portfolios catering to diverse price points, a strong alignment with Indian consumer preferences, and expansive retail and distribution networks.

“Chinese brands are expected to maintain their dominant position in the Indian smartphone market, contributing to around 75 percent of total smartphone shipments in 2025,” Chauhan added.

Upasana Joshi, research manager at IDC, told Moneycontrol that in 2025, Chinese vendors will likely focus on expanding their offline presence, opening more stores, streamlining their portfolios, and offering more substantial mid-range options.

Chinese handset brands are also renewing their investments in India and working to repair relationships with offline retailers after being accused of anti-competitive practices, such as favouring online sales channels. This shift comes amid a gradual improvement in India-China relations.

Brands like OnePlus, Xiaomi-owned Poco, and Realme are strengthening their offline retail presence by opening stores and upgrading existing outlets nationwide. Vivo is forming a joint venture with Noida-based Dixon Technologies to manufacture smartphones locally.

Chinese firms had previously scaled back investments in India due to increased scrutiny since 2020 over allegations of money laundering and tax evasion.

Vivo, Xiaomi, Oppo and Realme were among the top five smartphone brands in the July-September quarter of 2024, cornering 60 percent share of the market, as per Counterpoint.

Analysts noted that consolidation in the Indian smartphone market is complete, with no significant entries or exits expected in 2025. “As of 2024, around 25 active smartphone brands remain, a sharp decline from nearly 100 brands in 2018. This reflects the intensifying competition and challenges in maintaining a market presence,” Chauhan said.

Factors like a maturing user base, improved device quality, longer replacement cycles, economic headwinds, supply chain disruptions, and significant technological transitions (such as 4G to 5G) have gradually reduced the number of active brands.

Acer plans to re-enter the Indian smartphone market through a licensing deal with Indkal Technologies in February.

Joshi noted that smaller brands like Nothing and Motorola have gained strength in 2024 and are competing for market share from the top five players. “This growth momentum for smaller brands will likely continue in 2025,” she added.

2025: Focus on Value over Volume

The Indian smartphone market is expected to grow in the low single digits, with shipments projected to exceed 160 million units in 2025. However, value growth will likely surpass volume growth due to the increasing premiumisation trend.

This shift is driven by aggressive financing options, such as EMI schemes and trade-in programs, making premium smartphones more affordable for a wider audience.

The market is expected to surpass $50 billion in value by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10 percent. According to Counterpoint estimates, smartphone shipments are forecast to range between 162 and 165 million units.

IDC predicts that 2024 will close with around 152–153 million units shipped, valued at approximately $40 billion. For 2025, shipments are estimated at 156–158 million units, with a value of $42–43 billion. “This indicates that while volume growth will remain in the low single digits (around 3.5–4 percent YoY), value growth will be higher, at over 5 percent,” Joshi said.

The declining market share of smartphones priced under $100, which dropped from 20 percent in 2023 to 14 percent in 2024, highlights the increasing strength of mid-range devices, thereby raising the market’s overall value.

In line with the premiumisation trend, the retail average selling price (ASP) of smartphones in India is expected to exceed $300 for the first time in 2025.

Joshi noted that more extended EMI plans will make mid-range and premium smartphones more affordable, pushing ASPs and increasing the market’s overall value. “Aggressive marketing campaigns, especially those focused on AI and making the technology affordable, could also drive repeat purchases,” she added.

Additionally, mid-range smartphones are increasingly incorporating premium features, such as water resistance, curved displays, and enhanced camera capabilities.

“OEMs are strategically offering these features at marginal price increases of $10–20, encouraging consumers to upgrade to higher-priced models. This aligns with the growing consumer willingness to invest in better technology and premium experiences, further driving the market’s ASP upward,” Chauhan said.