WTC Final Qualification Scenario Explained: What India need to do, who are the other contenders apart from Australia

WTC Final Qualification Scenario Explained: What India need to do, who are the other contenders apart from Australia (BCCI Photo)

WTC Final Qualification Scenario Explained: Team India's World Test Championship (WTC) qualification for the final for a third time in a row took a major blow after consecutive defeats against New Zealand at home. The Black Caps led by Tom Latham crushed India by eight wickets in seaming conditions in Bengaluru, and the outcome was similar when the action moved to a spinning track in Pune. India were completely outplayed by New Zealand in the second Test and lost the match by 113 runs. This was India's first series defeat at home in 12 years and the repercussions were clearly felt on the WTC 2023-25 points table. (Check | Visiting teams winning a Test series in India)

Where are India placed on WTC 2023-25 points table?

Despite the consecutive and comprehensive losses, Rohit Sharma and Co. still hold on to the top spot on the WTC 2023-25 points table.

By how much has India's win percentage dropped on WTC table?

Ahead of the series against New Zealand, India had 74.24 point percentage. India had attained the number after completing a 2-0 clean sweep against Bangladesh earlier this month. However, in a span of less than 30-days India's point percentage witnessed a major drop. It was 68.06 after the loss in Bengaluru and it dropped to 62.82 on Saturday after the 113-run loss in Pune. As a result, Rohit Sharma and his men are now just 0.32 ahead of Australia (62.50), who occupy the second spot.

What does India need to do to qualify for the WTC final?

To qualify for their third consecutive WTC Final without relying on external results, India must win four of their remaining six matches. In addition, India also need to avoid defeats, which could be a tough ask given five out of the six Tests will be played in Australia.

How does New Zealand's win benefit other teams in the WTC final race?

The defeats against New Zealand have opened the gates for other teams like Sri Lanka, South Africa, and the Black Caps themselves besides Australia to qualify for the WTC 2023-25 final, which will be played between June 11 to 15 next year at Lord's. June 16 is available as a reserve day if required.

What are the qualification scenario for other teams in WTC final race?

Sri Lanka: The Island Nation have an outside chance, for which they need to win all their remaining matches and hope India drop some crucial points along the way. They have four Tests remaining, two against South Africa away in December and two against Australia at home in 2025, the schedule of which is yet to be announced.

South Africa: The Proteas are the favourites to tumble India in the race for the WTC final. South Africa are currently engaged in a two-match series against Bangladesh and have already won the first Test by seven wickets. All they need to do is complete a clean sweep to bolster their chances, following which they will play four Tests (two each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan) at home. Given the challenge, Proteas may go on to win all their matches and if that happens it will take their point percentage to 69.44. This will in return give India a tough run for their money, and even a single hiccup in the remaining six matches can cost Rohit and Co. the spot.

Australia: The Kangaroos, who are also the defending champion, are second and favourites to qualify for the final. For that they need four wins from their remaining seven matches (five at home, two away). Also Australia's next five matches are against India, so despite the two nations holding the top two spots it is highly unlikely that the 2025 final will be a repeat of the previous cycle.

New Zealand: The Black Caps also have an outside chance of making it to the final. New Zealand endured a huge blow after a 2-0 defeat against Sri Lanka, which was just before they traveled to India for the three-match series. The two losses can come to haunt the Kiwis, who on Saturday secured their first Test series win on Indian soil. Even if New Zealand win all their remaining four matches (one against India and three against England in December) they will finish with a point percentage of 64.28. New Zealand's current point percentage is 50.00.