India vs Pakistan: Win probabilities mean nothing as long as India have Jasprit Bumrah

India's Jasprit Bumrah celebrates the dismissal of Pakistan's captain Babar Azam during the ICC Men's T20 World Cup cricket match between India and Pakistan at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium in Westbury, New York, Sunday, June 9, 2024.AP/PTI

At one point, with Pakistan 71-2 from 11.5 overs in the pursuit of just 120 to win, the host broadcaster flashed the win probabilities on screen. Pakistan at 92 per cent. That wasn’t some arbitrary figure either. No matter how tricky the pitch, scoring 49 off 49 balls with wickets in hand should be a cakewalk for most international sides.

Two things upset that prediction. One was Pakistan’s tendency to implode under the slightest pressure. The second was Jasprit Bumrah. Since this T20 World Cup is being played in the USA, a basketball comparison isn’t too much of a stretch. Just as the Chicago Bulls of the 1990s relied on Michael Jordan to beat the buzzer and sink the game-winning shot, Rohit Sharma knows that no cause is lost as long as he can call on Bumrah.

That SOS was sent in the 15th over, with Mohammad Rizwan still there in his anchor role and ready to steer the side home. In October 2021, in Dubai, Rizwan’s unbeaten 55-ball 79 had taken Pakistan to their first-ever World Cup win against India – a 10-wicket thumping, no less. They say that fast bowlers, like elephants, don’t forget.

With the very first ball of his second spell, Bumrah transformed the game. With no scoreboard pressure to speak of, the ugly swipe across the line wasn’t a shot that Rizwan will look back on with fondness. But once again, Bumrah had done what he needed to do, homing in at the stumps with that angle that makes him so difficult to play.

Pakistan took just three from that Bumrah over, and when Axar Patel and Hardik Pandya bowled excellent overs to build on that, the asking rate suddenly looked less than straightforward. After 18 overs, with Pakistan needing 21 more, the choice in front of Rohit was stark. Did he save Bumrah for the last, or bowl him out and ensure that Arshdeep Singh had enough of a run-buffer to win the match?

Luckily for India, he chose the aggressive option. And to no one’s surprise, Bumrah again came up trumps. Having scored just three from the first five balls, a desperate Iftikhar Ahmed had no option but to swing at a low full toss. Having avoided colliding with Suryakumar Yadav, Arshdeep did superbly to cling on the steepling chance.

That was Bumrah’s day work done. And Pakistan’s hopes buried. The 15th and 19th overs of the innings – seven dot balls, two wickets, nothing to hit. This was skill of a freakish variety. Sitting up in the commentary box, Wasim Akram would have nodded in approval, even as he winced at another gutless Pakistani display.

When it comes to the T20 World Cup, Bumrah has unfinished business. He started the 2016 semi-final against West Indies at the Wankhede Stadium – his IPL home ground – by castling Chris Gayle with his first delivery. Thereafter, Johnson Charles and Lendl Simmons took to him, with Simmons smashing the last three balls of his spell for 6, 2 and 4. West Indies would win with two balls to spare.

In October 2022, when England romped past a target of 169 with four overs remaining in the T20 World Cup semi-final in Adelaide, talk was of how India’s outdated ‘analog’ cricket had been no match for ‘digital’ England. Such an analysis missed the fact that there was no Bumrah, out with the back injury that would eventually need surgery in New Zealand in March 2023. With him in the XI, India are a different beast, and his teammates will hope that this tour de force against Pakistan was just an appetiser for what’s to come over the next three weeks.

In exclusive arrangement with RevSportz