Volcanic threats in 2025: Two giant mounts could erupt this year – Should we be concerned?

As 2025 begins, two volcanoes are stirring curiosity. Could Yellowstone, the supervolcano beneath the US, erupt soon? Or is Axial Seamount in the Pacific more likely to erupt this year? Here's what scientists have to say.

Yellowstone's Eruption History and Current Activity

Yellowstone, located in the United States, last erupted 640,000 years ago. That eruption created a massive crater, 70 by 45 kilometres wide. It also caused geysers to form and volcanic ash to blanket much of the United States.
Since then, Yellowstone has become a vibrant national park. Animals such as bears, wolves, and elk now roam the park’s 8,900 square kilometres. But could another eruption be on the horizon?

Yellowstone (Image: Canva)

Scientists estimate a major eruption at Yellowstone every 700,000 years. With this in mind, we still have around 60,000 years to go before worrying. While volcanic activity persists, the region experiences numerous small earthquakes every year.

Beneath Yellowstone’s surface lies both basalt and rhyolite magma. The US Geological Survey recently reported that these magma reserves are more dispersed than previously thought. Geophysicist Ninfa Bennington explains that magma is stored in smaller sections.
As for an eruption this year, experts deem it extremely unlikely.

Axial Seamount: A More Immediate Threat?

In contrast, Axial Seamount, a volcano located beneath the Pacific Ocean, shows more immediate signs of activity. Last erupting in 2015, it has been swelling in a manner similar to pre-eruption signals from a decade ago. Researchers have detected increased pressure beneath the surface, with magma likely building up.

Axial Seamount (Image: @noturbine)

Experts at Oregon State University successfully predicted the 2015 eruption, using a seafloor cable to measure seismic activity. This method is now being applied to forecast future eruptions.

New Technologies for Better Predictions
With new technologies like artificial intelligence, scientists are improving their ability to predict volcanic behaviour. But, as volcanologist Valerio Acocella cautions, nature is unpredictable. Even with advanced methods, volcanoes can sometimes surprise us with unexpected events.

An eruption in 2025 at Axial Seamount remains a possibility, but it may provide valuable insight into volcanic processes. Understanding these eruptions will help improve predictions for other volcanoes in the future.