Why India needn't respond to everything that's happening in Pakistan

Shehbaz Sharif’s track record—and that of his brother Nawaz Sharif, three-times prime minister—indicates that he is a more reasonable person than many other Pakistani leaders so far. (Illustration by Suneesh K.)

So Pakistan has a new prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif. Ah well. Since its formation 75 years ago, the country has had democratically elected governments for only 53 years. In these 53 years, 19 men and one woman have been prime minister, two of them more than once, and not a single one has ever completed a five-year term. The first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, lasted the longest—four years and 63 days—before he was assassinated.

In some circles in India—and among South Asia “experts” based in the West—we are again seeing hopeful speculation that Indo-Pak relations will improve. There is a slew of recommendations and advice on what India should do now—make some friendly gestures, talk broader economic benefits, consider some minor concessions, etc., etc. No one seems to have yet recommended stronger people-to-people ties, and thank God for that.

But there is no logical reason that India should do anything at all.

In his first speech at the national assembly as prime minister, Sharif brought up Kashmir. Claiming that the valley was red with the blood of the Kashmiri people since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, he said that Pakistan would continue to “raise its voice for Kashmiri brothers and sisters at every forum…they will be provided diplomatic support, we will give them moral support”.

This is as per formula. No Pakistani prime minister can start off without making some belligerent noises about Kashmir. He cannot afford to be seen as being moderate on this issue.

Sharif also said: “Prime Minister Modi…should understand the poverty, unemployment and sickness on both sides. People don’t have medicines, education, trade or jobs. Why do we want to cause harm to ourselves and the coming generations?” But, apparently, these problems cannot be solved without “resolving Kashmir”.

This is absurd. One, no matter how hard Pakistan’s politicians try to equate India and Pakistan, India is lightyears ahead of Pakistan economically, technologically, and on every sociological parameter. The vast majority of Indians have much better things to do than spend any time thinking about Pakistan. While, if the world ever thinks of Pakistan, it is as a hub of Islamist terrorism.

Two, if Pakistan’s leaders believe they can tackle their country’s poverty, inequality and employment issues only if the Kashmir is “resolved” (what exactly is there to resolve, unless it’s Pakistan-occupied Kashmir?), good luck to them. India does not give a hoot.

Shehbaz Sharif’s track record—and that of his brother Nawaz Sharif, three-times prime minister—indicates that he is a more reasonable person than many other Pakistani leaders. In the past, he has condemned atrocities against Hindus and Christians in Pakistan. Last Holi, he wished the Hindus living in Pakistan and tweeted: “Our diversity is our greatest strength. Pakistan belongs to all its citizens, irrespective of their caste, creed, and colour. May the day be a source of peace and happiness for all.” This is in sharp contrast to Imran Khan, many of whose statements as prime minister bordered on jihadism, and under whom, oppression of the minorities went thoroughly unchecked.

Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who allegedly played a big part in Khan’s removal, also seems pragmatic, if one goes by his public utterances. “Pakistan will benefit if we improve ties with India,” he said recently. In February last year, he agreed to a ceasefire on the Line of Control and the ceasefire has held. He perhaps realizes that a military engagement with India makes no sense for Pakistan, given the many other problems the country faces.

The economy is in a terrible mess. The current account deficit is around 4 percent of GDP. Pakistan owes $122 billion—a third of its GDP—to various multilateral organisations and nations like China and Saudi Arabia. Foreign currency reserves, already depleted, seem to be now in free fall—in March, they dropped 30 percent from $16.2 billion to $11.3 billion. To curb galloping inflation, last fortnight, the central bank raised key interest rates to a jaw-dropping 12.25 percent. In the less-than-three years of Khan’s prime ministership, the average Pakistani became poorer.

The number of terror attacks—and attacks on security forces—by the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban, has actually increased since Imran Khan, the army and the ISI celebrated the (original) Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August last year. The TTP has strong links with the Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and has the tacit support of the Afghan Taliban, who, in response to Pakistani pleas to curb the TTP, has said sorry, we can’t help, it’s your internal problem.

Meanwhile, Pakistan remains on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global money-laundering and terrorist-financing watchdog, precariously perched above the black list. Last week, after the 2+2 meeting between the defence and external affairs ministers of India and the US, the two countries issued a joint statement asking Pakistan to take “immediate, sustained, and irreversible action” to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks and called for the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai attack and the 2016 Pathankot attack to be brought to justice.

And Pakistan’s general elections are due in 2023. So Sharif has just a year to do what he can to convince his countrymen to vote for him. This, while Imran Khan screams from every rooftop that he can clamber on to, that he is the victim of a vast US conspiracy and that Sharif is an American agent.

So Sharif has come to power with a scary list of domestic issues to deal with. These should keep him and Bajwa more than busy till the elections.

The only piece of good news for them seems to be that China has reiterated that it considers Pakistan an “all-weather strategic cooperation partner” and “iron-clad brother” and praised Sharif’s commitment to the $60-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor project. Though that may not really be good news. Ask Sri Lanka.

India has nothing to do with all this. Let Pakistan handle the demons of its own creation and solve its own problems. We need not pay heed to any of its government’s habitual attention-seeking behaviour or advice from those who make their living from conferences on topics like “peace and prosperity in South Asia”. Obviously, we must stay vigilant and any terrorist act—however small—must be met with disproportionate force. There is nothing else that India needs to do.