Turkey president Erdogan faces toughest political challenge in May 14 election

Turkiye president Erdogan (File image: Reuters)

The outcome of the national election in Turkey on May 14 will have global significance as President Tayyip Recep Erdogan, who has been in control of the country in various capacities for 20 years, seeks a fresh mandate. The election for a new parliament will also be held on the same day.

The implications of the elections will be felt not only in the country but beyond – in Russia, the US, the European Union and West Asia. Turkey occupies a unique geographical position, lying partly in Europe and partly in Asia, acting as both a barrier and bridge between the two continents.

With a predominantly Muslim population of 86 million, Turkey is also a key member of NATO and boasts the third-largest army in the US-led military coalition. Turkey’s strategic importance lies not only as a security provider in Europe and the seas of Somalia and the Mediterranean, but also because it controls the Bosporus.

The Bosporus is one of the most important straits in the world, connecting the Black Sea and the Dardanelles Strait, through which ships from Russia and Ukraine enter the Mediterranean Sea.

The outcome of the Turkish presidential election could impact the war in Ukraine, where Russia’s offensive has put Ukrainian forces on the defensive.

President Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have developed a strong bond and Moscow is considered one of the main backers of Ankara, helping the country to tide over its current economic crisis.

Opposition challenge

But Erdogan faces the most serious challenge of his political career from the opposition’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Liberal sections in the West believe if Erdogan is defeated, the elections will demonstrate that the erosion of democracies worldwide in recent years can be reversed and even firmly entrenched strongmen can be thrown out of power.

“Should he emerge victorious, Erdogan and his sense of invincibility will reach new highs,” said Alper Coskun, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

He said Turkey will be in dire need of foreign financial flows and Erdogan will have to conduct foreign policy within the constraints of that reality.

“But relations with the US and European countries will remain transactional and vulnerable to circumstantial crises,” he added.

Russia will be among the countries that will be worst-affected if Erdogan loses.

On April 27, Turkey’s first civilian nuclear plant, built by Russia at a cost of $20 billion, was inaugurated, signifying their flourishing energy and economic ties forged over decades. Turkey also benefits from Russia’s cheap oil and gas.

The 69-year-old Erdogan’s anti-Western rhetoric has served Moscow’s interests by undermining NATO unity and undercutting Western sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Russia transferred billions of dollars to projects in Turkiye to help the country prop up its economy during the crisis.

Putin's investment in Erdogan could fall flat if Kilicdaroglu, 74, a former bureaucrat who ran the country's social security agency, comes out on top. Kilicdaroglu has said he will rebuild relations with Europe and the US that were strained under Erdogan.

It could also lead to a quick nod from Turkey for Sweden’s entry into the NATO—a decision that Erdogan has held back for months.

Though many observers believe Erdogan’s defeat will not be good for Putin, it is also widely believed that his successor will have to maintain strong and cordial relations with Russia because of the country’s dependence on Moscow for its economy and energy.

Moreover, Putin would also like to woo Kilicdaroglu, if he wins. The Russian president would want to ensure that his indifference does not push him further into the western camp.

Common cause

Since Erdogan became prime minister in 2003, during Putin's first presidential term, the two have developed a good working relationship, although they have been at odds on many occasions.

When Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in 2015, Putin described it as a “stab in the back.” The two have also differed on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Erdogan has supplied Kyiv with lethal drones.

But Erdogan and Putin have often found common cause in challenging a world order dominated by the US. Erdogan enjoyed wide popularity as prime minister in the 2000s when he led a booming economy. But his stock has fallen drastically in recent months because of his repressive measures against opponents and a falling economy.

Following a 2016 coup attempt that he blamed on a US-based cleric, Erdogan reached an agreement with Putin to purchase a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, triggering US defence industry sanctions.

India’s relations with Turkey have often been strained because of its pro-Pakistan tilt on Kashmir and other issues. In recent months, though, both sides have tried to mend bilateral ties and look for cooperation in areas of mutual interest. Turkey is also a member of the G20.

Indications suggest that whoever comes to power will try to strengthen relations with India by separating it from Turkey's ties with Pakistan. Even if Erdogan is returned to power, neither the US nor the Europeans will be able to ignore him.

Turkey’s strategic importance for the stability of this crucial region will be much sought, especially as the Ukraine war shows no early signs of ending.