Trump vs Harris: All about 7 swing states that could decide the winner of US elections

Vice President Kamala Harris is up against former President Donald Trump

It's an open secret that the path to the White House often goes through the battleground states, or swing states, in every US presidential election. These states can vote either Republican or Democrat and are considered the most crucial in deciding the next president of America.

In 2024, there are seven states that could swing either way on November 5: the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the Sun Belt quartet of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Both the candidates—former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris—spent a bulk of their ad money and campaign efforts with a focus on these seven states. Most opinion polls are predicting a very close fight in the swing states this year, making Trump vs Harris a dead heat that is likely to go down to the wire.

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As the D-Day approaches, here's a detailed look at the 7 swing states, the issues that matter, and how they voted in the past presidential elections:

ARIZONA

Electoral college votes: 11 of 538
State population: 7.4 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 10,000 votes

Arizona and US Elections

• Immigration is one of the most important issues in the 2024 presidential election
• US-Mexico border and how it is impacting nearby states and the country as a whole
• Arizona is one of the border states facing an immigration problem
• Arizona's centrality to the national conversation around immigration policy makes it an important swing state
• Arizona's 11 electoral votes put it in the top 15 among all states

● Immigration (31%)
● Economy (20%)
● Housing affordability (11%)
● Education (10%)
● Abortion access (7%)
● Health care (6%)
● Threats to democracy (6%)
● Crime (5%)
Source: Emerson College Polling and The Hill

How Arizona Voted in Past Presidential Elections

2020: Joe Biden, Democrat
2016: Donald Trump, Republican
2012: Mitt Romney, Republican
2008: John McCain, Republican
2004: George W. Bush, Republican
2000: George W. Bush, Republican

Voters: A majority of its population is still non-Hispanic white (53.4%), with 5.7% being Black or African American and 5.2% being American Indian or Alaska Native.

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GEORGIA

Electoral college votes: 16 of 538
State population: 11 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 13,000 votes

Georgia and US Elections

• Georgia has had both a blue phase and a red phase over the past century-plus
• With 16 electoral votes, Georgia is in the top 10 among all states

● Economy 32%
● Immigration 14%
● Health care 12%
● Abortion 6%
● Crime 11%
● Threat to Democracy 8%
● Housing affordability 8%
● Education 7%
Source: Emerson College Polling and The Hill

How Georgia Voted in Past Presidential Elections

2020: Joe Biden, Democrat
2016: Donald Trump, Republican
2012: Mitt Romney, Republican
2008: John McCain, Republican
2004: George W. Bush, Republican
2000: George W. Bush, Republican

Voters: Just under half (49.6%) of the Peach State's population is non-Hispanic white. Nearly a third (33.2%) of the population is Black or African-American, while 11.1% is Hispanic and 4.9% is Asian.

MICHIGAN

Electoral college votes: 15 of 538
State population: 10 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 150,000 votes

Michigan and US Elections

• Michigan had been a reliably blue Midwestern state in recent decades after voting exclusively Republican in 70s and 80s
• Former President Donald Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes in 2016
• Biden notched a victory there over Trump in 2020, though by a wider margin
• Michigan holds 15 electoral votes which places it in the top 10 among all U.S. states
• Michigan has experienced slow population growth over the years, having had 21 Electoral College votes in the 1970s, now standing at 15, after losing one more vote from 2020 to 2024
• The winner in Michigan has gone on to win the White House in nine of the last 12 presidential elections

● Revitalising the manufacturing sector and job creation are vital, especially in the automotive industry
● Economy 31%
● Immigration 13%
● Threat to democracy 12%
● Healthcare 10%
● Housing 8%
● Education 7%
● Crime 7%
● Abortion 5%
Source: Emerson College Polling and The Hill

How Michigan Voted in Past Presidential Elections

2020: Joe Biden, Democrat
2016: Donald Trump, Republican
2012: Barack Obama, Democrat
2008: Barack Obama, Democrat
2004: John Kerry, Democrat
2000: Al Gore, Democrat

Voters: Nearly three-quarters (73.7%) of Michiganders are non-Hispanic white, but the state is also home to a sizable Black population (14.1%). The next-largest group by race or ethnicity is the Hispanic population, which comprises 6%.

NEVADA

Electoral college votes: 6 of 538
State population: 3.2 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 34,000 votes

Nevada and US Elections

• Nevada has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the last four election cycles
• Nevada more often went Republican from the late 1960s through the early 2000s, with wins by Democrat Bill Clinton marking exceptions in the 1990s
• Nevada holds just six electoral votes, placing it in the bottom half of all U.S. states
• Nevada can be a potential bellwether for US with winner here to win the White House in 10 of the last 12 elections
• Nevada's Hispanic population thus will be very important in November
• About a third of its registered voters as of November 2023 (32.78%) were unaffiliated, while 31.46% were Democrats and 28.11% were Republicans (Independent Voter Project)

● Economy 26%
● Immigration 14%
● Education 14%
● Housing 13%
● Healthcare 11%
Source: Emerson College Polling and The Hill

How Nevada Voted in Past Presidential Elections

2020: Joe Biden, Democrat
2016: Hillary Clinton, Democrat
2012: Barack Obama, Democrat
2008: Barack Obama, Democrat
2004: George W. Bush, Republican
2000: George W. Bush, Republican

Voters: Nevada is a fairly diverse state, and the 2020 census showed it was among the fastest-growing states in the nation. Less than half of its population (45.4%) is non-Hispanic white, and 29.9% is Hispanic. The next-largest racial or ethnic groups are the Black or African American population (11%) and Asian population (9.7%).

NORTH CAROLINA

Electoral college votes: 16 of 538
State population: 10.8 million people
2020 winner: Trump by 74,000 votes

North Carolina and US Elections

• North Carolina has only chosen two Democratic candidates since early 1970s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008
• The state's 16 electoral votes put it in the top 10 among all states
• Hurricane Helene will be a big talking point as Trump criticised the Biden admin for not working adequately
• Trump won the state by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020

● Aftermath of Hurricane Helene
● Economy 36%
● Healthcare 14%
● Education 12%
● Immigration 10%
● Housing 8%
● Crime 7%
● Threat to Democracy 6%
● Abortion 5%
Source: Emerson College Polling and The Hill

How North Carolina Voted in Past Presidential Elections

2020: Donald Trump, Republican
2016: Donald Trump, Republican
2012: Mitt Romney, Republican
2008: Barack Obama, Democrat
2004: George W. Bush, Republican
2000: George W. Bush, Republican

Voters: Nearly 61% of North Carolina's population is non-Hispanic white. The state also has a sizable Black or African American population (22.1%) and Hispanic population (11.4%), and it will be crucial for the Harris campaign to mobilize both groups if it wants to win the state.
Women - another pivotal voting bloc - comprise 51.1% of North Carolina's population.

PENNSYLVANIA

Electoral college votes: 19 of 538
State population: 13 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 82,000 votes

Pennsylvania and US Elections

• With 19 electoral votes - one of the highest counts among all states - Pennsylvania again will be a major prize in November
• Trump's win in 2016 stopped a streak of Democratic candidates carrying the state
• Biden's win in 2020 allowed him to secure a "blue wall" that also included Michigan and Wisconsin
• With 10 of the past 12 presidential election winners having won Pennsylvania, it could prove to be a bellwether
• Biden won the state by slim margin in 2020, which clinched the presidency for him In 2016, Trump carried Pennsylvania by an even smaller percentage of votes over Hillary Clinton

● Economy 36%
● Crime 12%
● Threat to Democracy 11%
● Immigration 11%
● Healthcare 9%
● Education 7%
● Housing 6%
● Abortion 4%
Source: Emerson College Polling and The Hill

How Pennsylvania Voted in Past Presidential Elections

2020: Joe Biden, Democrat
2016: Donald Trump, Republican
2012: Barack Obama, Democrat
2008: Barack Obama, Democrat
2004: John Kerry, Democrat
2000: Al Gore, Democrat

Voters: Nearly three-quarters (74.1%) of Pennsylvania's population is non-Hispanic white, with the Black or African American population (12.3%) and Hispanic population (8.9%) accounting for the next-largest groups by race or ethnicity. Pennsylvania also has an older population, with 20% of people at least 65 years old to exceed the national mark of 17.7%.

WISCONSIN

Electoral college votes: 10 of 538
State population: 5.9 million people
2020 winner: Biden by 21,000 votes

Wisconsin and US Elections

• Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state
• It became a big-time battleground after former President Donald Trump eked out a victory there in 2016
• Biden flipped the script with his own narrow victory there over Trump in 2020
• Wisconsin counts for 10 electoral votes - placing it roughly in the middle of the pack among all U.S. states
• It's a state where four of the past six White House contests were decided by less than a point
• Winner in the state also has gone on to win the White House in the past four presidential elections

● Economy 31%
● Threat to Democracy 13%
● Immigration 11%
● Healthcare 10%
● Crime 7%
● Education 7%
● Housing 7%
● Abortion 7%
Source: Emerson College Polling and The Hill

How Wisconsin Voted in Past Presidential Elections

2020: Joe Biden, Democrat
2016: Donald Trump, Republican
2012: Barack Obama, Democrat
2008: Barack Obama, Democrat
2004: John Kerry, Democrat
2000: Al Gore, Democrat

Voters: Close to 4 in 5 Wisconsinites (79.5%) are non-Hispanic white, according to the latest estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. The next-largest groups by race or ethnicity are the Hispanic (8.1%) and Black or African American populations (6.6%). Another important group - ringing true across the country for both Harris and Trump - is independent voters. The group helped Trump win the state in 2016, and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.