From New York to Virginia, Democrats rise again: Why America’s off-year elections were a warning shot for Trump

US President Donald Trump reacts as he boards Air Force One after talks with China's President Xi Jinping at the Gimhae Air Base, located next to the Gimhae International Airport in Busan on October 30, 2025. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP)

The Democratic Party scored sweeping victories across the United States on Tuesday (November 4), turning the first major round of elections since Donald Trump’s return to the White House into a referendum on his leadership. From New York to Virginia and New Jersey, voters sent a clear message of discontent with the president’s second term.

Zohran Mamdani’s victory as the new Mayor of New York, along with Abigail Spanberger’s win as Governor of Virginia and Mikie Sherrill’s in New Jersey, underscored a strong nationwide shift toward the Democrats.

Despite the results, Trump remained defiant. Writing on his Truth Social account, he claimed, “Trump wasn’t on the ballot, and shutdown, were the two reasons that Republicans lost the elections tonight.”

Political observers see the results as a direct verdict on Trump’s performance since returning to office. Historically, the first elections after a president’s inauguration have reflected public sentiment toward the administration’s direction. Former President Barack Obama once described his party’s losses in the 2010 midterms as a “shellacking.”

For Trump, this year’s results carry a similar sting. Less than a year into his second term, a self-declared socialist, Zohran Mamdani, has taken charge of America’s largest city, while two moderate Democrats have claimed governorships in Virginia and New Jersey.

Trump’s repeated threats to punish New York financially appear to have backfired. “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!” Trump wrote on Truth Social a day before the polls.

The president also attempted to insert himself directly into the local races. He pushed former New York Mayor Eric Adams to drop out, urged independent candidate Curtis Silva to follow suit, and ultimately endorsed Andrew Cuomo. But voters sided with Mamdani, despite Trump’s warnings that electing him would risk federal funding for the city.

“If Communist Candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the Election for Mayor of New York City, it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required, to my beloved first home,” Trump posted online. “I don’t want to send, as President, good money after bad.”

Democratic leaders framed the night as a rejection of Trump’s brand of politics. “It’s not just a message about Democrats; it’s a message about our entire country. I think Americans are appalled by what they are seeing coming out of this administration,” New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told CNN.

A CNN/SSRS poll released earlier in the week showed Trump’s disapproval rating at a record 63 percent, signalling widespread public frustration.

The results are being seen as an early indicator of the energy building within the Democratic Party ahead of next year’s midterm elections. A similar surge was seen after Trump’s 2016 victory, when Democrats gained 40 seats in the House of Representatives in 2018.

Republican commentators tried to downplay the losses. “These are off-year elections in blue states and I was expecting Democrats to win,” conservative analyst Scott Jennings said on CNN.

Even within the White House, however, aides acknowledged the disappointment. “It’s not doomsday but not a good tea leaf. Not a great night if you’re in the president’s party. But it’s also an off-year,” a White House ally told Politico. “Part of this is the struggle that has always been: how do you transfer his voters into other elections? There are people who only turn out when he’s on the ballot.”

The aide added that voters appear unconvinced by Trump’s economic record. “People aren’t feeling the promises kept. You won on lowering costs, putting more money back into people’s pockets. And people don’t feel that right now.”

Republican strategist Mike Hahn, a former Trump staffer based in New Jersey, attempted to shift the blame away from the president. “To be clear, NJ is not a referendum on Trump,” he said. “It is a reflection on Jack Ciattarelli, who has now lost three times and was always vulnerable.”

Not everyone in Trump’s camp shared that optimism. “We got our asses handed to us,” said Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running for governor of Ohio. “Our side needs to focus on affordability.”

Virginia, often considered a bellwether for national sentiment, went solidly blue. Former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger defeated her Republican rival by a large margin, outperforming previous Democratic candidates Kamala Harris in 2024 and Terry McAuliffe in 2021.

In her victory speech, Spanberger criticised the administration’s instability. “We will not stand by silently while you attack Virginia’s workers,” she said, pledging to bring order and focus back to state governance.

Democrats also flipped 13 seats in Virginia’s state Assembly, giving them the power to push through a constitutional amendment to redraw state maps.

In New Jersey, Democrats regained control of several counties that Trump had won in 2024. In Pennsylvania, they held all seats on the state Supreme Court, a critical win as the state prepares to redraw its electoral boundaries before next year’s vote. The justices’ ten-year terms ensure long-term Democratic influence in a key swing state.

California Governor Gavin Newsom also emerged stronger from the night’s results. Voters overwhelmingly backed his Proposition 50 initiative, which aims to redraw California’s congressional districts in favour of Democrats. The measure could help the party gain up to five additional House seats next year, narrowing the Republican majority in Congress.

Newsom said the results showed a rejuvenated party ready to confront the Trump administration. “The Democratic Party is on its toes, no longer on its heels,” he declared, calling it an “extraordinary moment” for the country.

For Trump and the Republican Party, however, Tuesday’s outcome served as an unmistakable warning. Less than a year into his second term, voters across the nation appear ready to deliver a repeat of 2018, when the president’s unpopularity helped Democrats seize control of Congress. The signs now suggest that history may once again be preparing to repeat itself.