Podcast | Editor's Pick- Will it be Brexit or Regrexit?

It was in the summer of 2016 that the Brexit referendum saw a 52 percent vote in favour of Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU). You’d have scarcely been able to gauge this political uncertainty if you went by that year's Bollywood blockbuster shot partially in England, Ae Dil Hai Mushkil.

As is usual for Karan Johar's many protagonists, the film's characters remained oblivious to politics, and focused on the matters of the heart. Though, regret was the overarching sentiment in the movie just as it is in the air around the idea of Brexit at the moment.

The world seems to be sharply divided in right, left and centrist ideologies and the divisions came to fore when French President Emmanuel Macron marked the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I by rebuking nationalism, calling it a “betrayal of patriotism” and warned against “old demons coming back to wreak chaos and death.”

In England, the idea of Brexit seems to be facing an identity crisis and the question being asked is whether the country can find a path back from Brexit.

At the heart of this question is Prime Minister Theresa May's draft Brexit deal, that according to many, could be remembered by historians as 'regrexit'.

We begin today's podcast with an earlier Reuters report carried by Money Control that in a way tried to present an overview of the two and a half years since the United Kingdom voted to exit the EU.A look back

As you will remember, in the June 23, 2016 referendum, 17.4 million voters, or 52 percent, backed Brexit while 16.1 million, or 48 percent, backed staying in the bloc.

But as has been the case between clashing ideologues in many countries in recent times, the opponents have been exploring ways to hold another referendum. This time, to decisively stay in EU.

Tied in this imbroglio is Theresa May's ambition to remain in power as long as possible and she has been stating repeatedly: "Getting rid of me risks delaying Brexit."

Going by her recent attempts at awkward dancing in public events to win over her critics and win goodwill, it is easy to imagine that even she is not quite convinced about her ability to do either, but let us quickly get to the point, she has been underscoring.

That there will not be another referendum on membership.

So how can those hoping for a second vote get what they want?

The chances are that May's draft divorce deal to leave the EU will not be taken at its face value or supported unconditionally within the Parliament, considering the number of disgruntled voices within the Conservative Party and in the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party.

More cooks stirring the pot

There are other impediments including the likes of Hugo Dixon, who is the deputy chair of the People's Vote campaign group, which wants another referendum. He believes, the parliament will vote down the deal and it will open the door for People's Vote which is what he wants anyway.

The chances are that there will be finally a deal. What kind of a deal it will be is still up in the air.

Short-sighted gamble?

The question worried observers are asking is  if the UK can afford the collapse of May's deal even though experienced players such  as former Prime Ministers John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown as well as the opposition Labour Party have said that a second referendum is  not a bad option.

"I still believe it is possible that Brexit is stopped," Blair told Reuters last month.

For an election to materialise, it will all come down to two thirds of the 650 lawmakers in parliament to vote for one.

A more drastic measure would be a motion of no confidence in the government and a 14-day grace period to pass an act of confidence in a new government.

And if a new prime minister fails to renegotiate with the EU, parliament would finally then demand a new referendum.

Yes, this path is as convoluted as Brexit.

But if a referendum has to happen, European Union would need to give UK more time as it is currently supposed to leave EU at 2300 GMT on March 29, 2019. And the clock is ticking though as Reuters reported, judges at the EU's highest court will hear a case on the Brexit process on November 27, reviewing whether Britain could unilaterally withdraw its decision to leave the EU.

A divided nation

For now, the country seems to be divided between those wanting to stay within EU and those eager to exit, and each survey throws up a different prediction.

Most EU leaders want the world's fifth largest economy however to return to the fold and European Council President Donald Tusk has even said that the EU is prepared to cancel Brexit.

French President Emmanuel Macron, the self-proclaimed globalist, has also suggested that Britain change its mind.

The fear however is that whether a second referendum will open the door to a third and then a fourth one with no solution in sight.

And right in the middle is a beleaguered May.  Several of her ministers, including a key Brexit voice, have resigned and attempts are on to oust her.

To proceed further with her deal, she will also need the support of the DUP, a small Northern Irish party which props up May's minority government, and Hugo Dixon may pull the plug if he is not happy with how his province is treated in the deal.

May is on her toes and bristling to get both her prime-ministerial seat and the Brexit deal secured and will go to Brussels and meet European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and other EU leaders ahead of an EU summit.

So will Brexit definitely happen?

According to a BBC report, "The UK government and the main UK opposition party both say Brexit will happen. There are some groups campaigning for Brexit to be halted, but the focus among the UK's elected politicians has been on what relationship the UK has with the EU after Brexit, rather than whether Brexit will happen at all. Nothing is ever certain, but as things stand Britain is leaving the European Union.”

Part of the complexity of this deal are the geographical and economic ramifications and the well-being of citizens across demographics.

"After months of negotiation, the UK and EU have come up with a draft withdrawal agreement. This covers how much money the UK owes the EU - an estimated £39 billion - what happens to the Northern Ireland border and what happens to UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK. It also proposes a method of avoiding the return of a physical Northern Ireland border.

A separate and much shorter draft statement on future relations has also been agreed. To buy more time, the two sides have agreed on a 21-month "transition" period to smooth the way to post-Brexit relations. The UK cabinet agreed the text on 14 November, but there were two resignations, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and there has been talk of Brexiteer MPs hoping to force a confidence vote on Theresa May.

Assuming that doesn't happen, there is an EU summit planned for Sunday 25 November to agree a final version. It would then be up to the UK parliament and EU member states to each ratify the agreement, before Brexit day next March," said the BBC.

As the story unfolds, we will bring you a lot more on the subject in another Diiging Deeper podcast. For now, all eyes are on Theresa May and whether she will exit the Parliament before UK can exit EU.