Lockdown may have averted over 3 million COVID-related deaths in Europe: Study

Non-pharmaceutical measures such as lockdown and school closures may have averted more than three million deaths in 11 European countries hit by the novel coronavirus pandemic, said researchers.

In a modelling study of lockdown from Imperial College London scientists, published online in Nature, the team used death data to infer changes in the course of the COVID-19 epidemic as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions. They analysed data from 11 countries in Europe, including the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany and Belgium, up until May 4.

In the study, the team estimated that by that date between 12 and 15 million individuals in these countries had been infected with the novel coronavirus, which is 3.2 percent to 4 percent of the population, with large country-to-country fluctuations.

By comparing the number of observed deaths against those predicted by their model in the absence of interventions, the authors suggest that approximately 3.1 million deaths have been averted due to non-pharmaceutical measures.

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They further calculated that the reproduction number has dropped to below one as a result of the interventions, decreasing by an average of 82 percent, the study said, adding that the values varied from country to country.

“The data suggests that without any interventions, such as lockdown and school closures, there could have been many more deaths from COVID-19,” said Dr Samir Bhatt, study author from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute (J-IDEA), Imperial College London.

According to Dr Bhatt, the rate of transmission has declined from high levels to ones under control in all European countries they study.

Dr Seth Flaxman, study author from the Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, also said that using a model based on data from the number of deaths in 11 European countries, it is clear to them that non-pharmaceutical interventions, including lockdown and school closures, have saved about 3.1 million lives in these countries.

The model given by the team further suggested that the measures put in place in these countries in March were successful in controlling the epidemic by driving down the reproduction number and significantly reducing the number of people who would have been infected by the novel coronavirus, said Dr Flaxman.

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