Survey shows 47% don't want NDA in power after 2019 polls

The BJP-led government may find it tough to trounce the Congress and its allies in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. According to the ABP-CSDS Mood of the Nation survey, a rather worrisome trend for the BJP has emerged. There are more people who believe that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) does not merit a second chance to form the government than those who think it does.

Almost 47 percent of the total 15,859 respondents are of the opinion that the Modi government does not deserve to be voted back to power in 2019, according to the survey. Less than two of every five or 39 percent thought it deserved a second chance, with the rest being non-committal.

BJP may not get majority on its own

The survey suggests that if the elections were to be held today, the BJP would not be able achieve the 272-seat magic number. It would have to rely on its allies to retain power at the Centre.

NDA would get 274 seats while the UPA would win 164 seats. Other parties and regional parties would get 105 seats, the survey has suggested.

In terms of the nationwide vote share, NDA would get 37 percent votes, down from 38.5 percent in 2014. UPA would get 31 percent votes, up from 23 percent in 2014, while others would get 32 percent votes.

Also Read | Mood of the Nation survey: Key takeaways

The survey also found that anti-Modi government sentiments were especially strong among the country’s religious minorities.

“About three-fourths of Muslims, three-fifths of Christians and well over half the Sikhs indicated that they do not wish to see the Modi government coming back to power next year,” the survey stated.

While Muslim disapproval of the Modi government isn’t a largely contested narrative, the survey, rather unexpectedly, also found a sizeable section of voters from the majority Hindu community with an anti-government sentiment.

According to the survey, the Hindu votes are nearly split down the middle over the question on whether the Modi regime should be given another chance with 44% exhibiting a pro-government stand and 42% taking an anti-government position.

“Out of all Hindu communities, Dalits and Adivasis — who have also been victims of violence and atrocities — were found to be most vociferous in their opposition to the government at 55% and 43% respectively. Dominant OBC communities are also quite opposed (42%) to the present government,” the survey found.

Nearly 32% voters have said they would vote for BJP in the event of a snap Lok Sabha election, the survey stated. At the start of the year, the same survey had found out that 34% of the voters would do so.

Interestingly, a similar survey in 2013, nine months before the 2014 national elections, had predicted the same results for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Back then, almost 39% had been against giving the UPA another chance, 31% had been in favour and 30% had been non-committal. When the results were out, the UPA was routed as the alliance managed to win only 60 seats.