India's nominal GDP is likely to miss the government's growth target for the second year in a row. We break down the latest estimates, the impact on fiscal deficit targets, and what experts are predicting for FY26.
India’s GDP growth has been way stronger than expected in Q2 while India continues to be the fastest growing large economy in the world. Can the growth momentum continue? The domestic and global factors that will determine India’s growth in FY25, and what to expect in the upcoming budget from the Finance Minster to ensure the economy remains firmly on the growth path? Sonal Varma, chief economist and managing director, India and Asia (Ex-Japan), Nomura shares her take.
India's GDP will further decelerate to 4.7 per cent growth in 2023, according to the forecast by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Trade and Development Report 2022.
Regarding India's exposure to macro stability risks, Morgan Stanley said even as macro stability indicators are expected to worsen, lack of domestic imbalances and focus on improving the productivity dynamic will help to mitigate risks.
Supply shortages and the high base weigh on manufacturing, while services output may grow at a faster clip to lead the growth recovery in Q3 FY22, Barclays India said
This growth is expected owing to the government’s increased focus on infrastructure projects and smart recovery of demand expected for residential as well as commercial segments.
The estimate given by the National Statistical Office in its first advance forecast compares with 9.5 percent expansion the RBI had projected last month
The deterioration is likely to be more than foreseen
The agencies believe the Indian economy will find it hard to overcome the after-effects of coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions and the stimulus package measured by the government may not be enough.
It’s very likely they will have to revise them again very soon
India's gross domestic product grew 5.8 percent in January-March, official data released on May 31 showed, confirming fears of a slowdown. The growth in GDP was slowest since 2014-15.
Gross domestic product probably rose at a 0.8 percent annual rate, according to a Reuters survey of economists, also as a strong dollar and tepid global demand hurt exports, and lower oil prices continued to undercut investment by energy firms.
Jayesh Mehta, Managing Director & Country Treasurer, Bank of America is of the view that this interim Budget would be a short-term event because the there is a larger event around April.
Barclays lowered India's FY14 GDP forecast for FY14 to 4.7 percent. It said that the broader trend remains sluggish and that growth and fiscal health of the country are likely to be stressed.
Goldman Sachs joins the downgrading bandwagon, sharply cutting India's GDP forecast to 4 percent from 6 percent for FY14 and to 5.4 percent from 6.8 percent for FY15.
India Inc. expressed its disappointment over the Reserve Bank of India keeping its policy rates unchanged at the first quarter policy review meeting.
Benchmark indices closed up, but well off their intra-day highs as the trade deficit further widened in January, underscoring the continuing weakness in the economy.
Pronab Sen, principal adviser, Planning Commission explains on CNBC, in the light of the government revising the GDP forecast by lowering it to 5 percent that the low GDP at market price is a sign of the injection of heavy subsidies that continue to drive the economy and consumption
CARE Ratings has come out with its report on "third quarter monetary policy review-FY13". According to the rating agency, the reduction in CRR will induce liquidity and alleviate the present liquidity strain in the system and provide more funds to banks which will enable them to lower their interest rates.
While markets are confident of a low-interest rate regime, RBI continues to tread cautiously at every step. In its macroeconomic report for third quarter, the central bank mentioned about calibrated measures in managing country's monetary policy. It revised India's GDP forecast to 5.5% in 2012-13 as against 5.7% estimated earlier.
HSBC further cut its India growth forecast for the current and next fiscal years, saying the slowdown in the economy has become more structural than cyclical.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch cut their growth forecasts for India, following up on a Morgan Stanley downgrade earlier this week that had sparked much concern in domestic markets.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Sajjid Chinoy, Asia economics, JPMorgan says it will be very tricky for the central bank to go ahead with any rate cuts for FY13 and doesnt see the RBI having any headroom to cut further.
Nirmal Bang has come out with its report on currency. According to the research firm the likely range for USDINR pair to trade in spot is 52.95-53.25.
On the sidelines of the Citi India Investor Conference, Rohini Malkani, the Chief India Economist, Citigroup spoke to CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh about their India GDP forecast of 8.1% which was more than the RBI's forecast.