Disinflation

Disinflation is happening in all the right places

The US consumer price index is still a fog of lags, imputations and general noise, but the categories that matter are extremely encouraging

RBI’s disinflationary curve has three distressing wrinkles

The monetary policy's focus remains on keeping inflation in check but how its sanguine outlook in three crucial areas plays out bears watching

Will Jerome Powell derail the ‘Immaculate Disinflation’ narrative?

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week is very important, as it will tell us whether the Fed has finally changed its stance on inflation, or whether it pushes back against the market narrative

Disinflation to be ‘slow and protracted’, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

“The cumulative impact of our monetary policy actions over the last one year is still unfolding and yet to materialize fully,” Governor Das said at an event by Central Banking magazine in London, adding that RBI’s price-gains forecast of 5.1% for the current financial year is well above its aim.

Commodity crash signals disinflation is taking hold for now

The commodity crunch unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has taken a sharp reversal, with a Bloomberg gauge dropping more than 10% since the start of the year to the lowest since 2021.

RBI paper: Signs of disinflation, but demand-pull inflation gaining traction

With growth continuing to be robust, it’s no wonder that demand pull inflation is rising. That is why the RBI paper says the RBI must be ‘in readiness to address the rising sensitivity of inflation to demand pull’

Monetary policy is at work, substantial disinflation achieved: RBI Bulletin

The government has mandated the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ensure retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

US Fed: Signs of disinflation, but labour market still tight

An improving global outlook means that the growth premium enjoyed by the Indian market will reduce

India in sweet spot; see 12-13% mkt return in 1 yr: CLSA

Mahesh Nandurkar of CLSA says investors did not factor in impact of disinflation on earnings estimate. The property market is also going through slowdown due to disinflation

Why RBI's Rajan has little reason to hold back rate cut?

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has little reason to hold back on his rate cut this month. Perhaps he is holding his hand to see what Janet Yellen is upto at the US Fed later this week. The Fed meets on 17 September.

Room for rate cut; Guv veto needed for inflation check: JPM

Jahangir Aziz, Asia economic research, JPMorgan, says it is very hard to see a monetary policy committee where the governor doesn't have a veto power, but is responsible for monitoring inflation.

Hope banks start lowering lending rates in FY16: Rajan

At a tele conference call with analysts later in the day, RBI chief Raghuram Rajan said he expected to see banks lower lending rates heading into a new fiscal year in April and believes liquidity stance at the moment is fairly accomodative.

Sub 6% CPI by FY16 end, 25 bps cut by June likely: Barclays

Siddharth Sanyal of Barclays sees CPI inflation inching closer to the 5 percent handle, averaging below Rajan‘s expectation or target of 6 percent inflation towards end of 2015-16. Keeping that in mind, he expects another 25 basis points cut by June, but post April 7 policy.