India has for long had just one engine of growth and even that is faltering
Economists have said the ‘savings glut of the rich’ lowers aggregate demand and limits the size of the market
The relatively well-off have a disproportionately high share of consumption
Migrant workers’ return to their homes may affect some sectors such as construction
An intermittent rally in sectors like insurance, industrial gases & fuels and retail could be possible as the advance-decline ratio of these sectors is greater than or equal to 0.50 on MoM basis.
The government seems to have chosen to go for an incremental Budget as against the expectation of a Big Bang one
The Budget proposals should aim at supporting private investments and government’s own capex spend -- both through on- and off-budget financing
"With some fiscal stimulus in the Budget, we see the FMCG sector growing at 10% to 12% p.a. over the next 2 two years," he said.
Personal income tax cuts and higher funds allocation to rural and agri sectors will do a world of good.
To arrest slowdown, a higher outlay for boosting rural credit flow and promoting agricultural exports is necessary
Early company updates show that the consumer economy remains under stress but there’s a way out of slow growth
The next few months should provide clues on whether the consumption engine is staging a revival or not
Despite the mayhem in the market, many resilient stocks are still trading close to their 52-week highs
If we leave out government consumption, growth in real GDP was just 4.5 percent
Value-for-money business models are doing well across sectors like consumer durables, paints, apparel retailers, grocery retailers, etc, says Chockalingam Narayanan
Gillette and P&G Health are relatively better off since their sales are mostly in the urban and semi-urban areas.
The scare caused by truant rainfall in June has been made up to a considerable extent in July. If August also lends a shoulder, then farm output could get a major boost.
This push to increase credit offtake may take some time to bear fruit.
In the Interim Budget presented in February, the government avoided the temptation of populist spending that can worsen the fiscal deficit, particularly when the stress is showing up.
Sectors like coal, steel, cement and power will get a mark for water consumption by the Ministry of Jal Shakti which is now in the initial phases.
The upcoming Budget is expected to take measures to address the slowdown in private consumption.
Moneycontrol's Jerome Anthony does a 3 Point Analysis of the company's current position
Consumption was the one engine that kept the growth flag flying. The new government must ensure the slowdown, if it is indeed one, is temporary
Consumption is expected to remain the driver of growth this fiscal year
We are of the opinion that the discretionary consumption would bounce back if the monsoon is ‘normal’, liquidity situation eases and stable government is in place, said Arun Thukral of Axis Securities