Cement sector poised for a rebound in FY26, say Jefferies, citing Southern price recovery, moderating competition, and improving demand
Over 50 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) capacity are being acquired for USD 4.5 billion by two leading players – Aditya Birla group firm UltraTech Cement and billionaire Gautam Adani-led Ambuja Cements – besides organic expansion of the existing units as they have kept their war chest ready, prowling for opportunities.
The Adani Group, which has focused primarily on acquiring cement businesses thus far, is now prepared to initiate the construction of new facilities from the ground up as it aims to become India's largest cement producer.
In a rare and exclusive interview with Moneycontrol's Ashwin Mohan, top dealmaker and non-executive vice chairman of JM Financial, Vishal Kampani says investors are not nervous of populist pressure in Budget 2024 even as he bats for higher capex spends. Kampani feels the existing capital gains tax regime should be simplified and streamlined . He adds that global private equity funds are thrilled with the exit momentum in India, calling it the most exciting market in the world after the US. He also predicts more MNC IPO's and more m&a action in financial services amongst other sectors. Watch the budget special of Deal Central
The overall volumes for the FY2024-25 are likely to expand by 7-8 per cent driven by a healthy demand from the infrastructure and housing sectors.
Although price hikes may not be sustainable in the near term due to the onset of the monsoon season in a few weeks, MOFSL believes that the government's focus on slum redevelopment and affordable housing under the PMAY will support long-term cement demand.
Kotak analysts recommend reassessing this valuation method in these high capex sectors since earnings do not translate well into free cashflow or dividends
Robust rebound in demand and sharp drop in input prices lifted operating margins of cement firms in the past few quarters
It is better to be selective on this sector and keep away from companies based in central and eastern regions
Industry margins set to rebound on recovery in prices and drop in fuel costs; UltraTech, JK Cement and Dalmia Bharat are among top analyst stock picks.
A combination of higher demand, growth and healthy balance sheets of ambitious companies and smaller companies seeking an exit are spurring consolidation in the sector
As construction resumes after the monsoon and input costs start cooling, the next two quarters are likely to be good for the sector.
Analysts expect the margin to recover third quarter onwards, driven by cost cool-off, rebound in cement prices and pick-up in construction activities
A $10 rise in petcoke and imported coal prices increases the cost of cement manufacturing by Rs 50-60 a tonne, say analysts
Earnings Q1 preview| Better demand in non-trade channels supported cement offtake and the data released by core sector output also suggests the cement production has improved by ~15-16 percent in Apr-May’22 compared to the last year owing to the lower base.
The cement sector had a stupendous run as majority of the players delivered stellar earnings post Covid. However, things have slowed down considerably in the last couple of quarters. Looking ahead, the sector is likely to remain under pressure. Here are the key reasons that could weigh down the sector.
We advise strong caution on UltraTech and Shree Cement as the entry of Adani poses the biggest risk to their market share as well as super-rich valuation
The huge infrastructure programme of the government and the return of investment demand in the private sector is good news for the cement industry
As of April 28, 2022, Radhakishan Damani individually holds 3,51,32,665 equity shares in India Cements. The cumulative holding of the family stands at 6,44,98,180 shares. This stake is worth Rs 1,335 crore.
Any exit from Indian markets will be in keeping with Holcim’s Strategy 2025 that is a journey towards its green focus. Recent acquisitions by the Swiss-based cement giant in building solutions and products, while simultaneously divesting its stake in Asian countries and others such as Russia and Brazil reinforce this strategy
Experts expect cement demand to remain robust in Q1FY23 with the onset of peak season and increase in construction activities driven by pick up in government projects, strong real estate and improvement in rural demand post a good rabi crop harvest
Demand for the building material remains strong as companies push volumes to meet year-end targets despite a labour shortage caused by the Holi holiday and elections in some regions.
Creating and sustaining a green supply chain is not easy, but the cascading positive outcome it offers makes it one of the most compelling solutions yet
The sector started the December quarter on a strong note in October but soon lost steam across regions due to extended monsoons and ban on construction in some parts.
High input prices and energy costs hit India cement makers in the second quarter, but a benign demand outlook promises to lift the fortunes of the industry in the second half of the financial year.