Scripting its second biggest single-day gain this year, the rupee today zoomed by 37 paise to close at a fresh 17-month high of 65.04 on the back of panic dollar selling by speculative traders and exporters.
Derivatives expiry is expected to keep stock markets volatile this week despite no major immediate trigger while global cues and overseas capital inflows will continue to steer sentiment, say experts.
Paul Mackel, Managing Director-Head Of Asian Currency Research, HSBC expects to rupee to be around 69/USD by year-end and at similar levels by end of FY17.
Persistent foreign capital inflows also boosted the rupee value against the dollar, a forex dealer said.
The Finance Ministry on Tuesday forwarded a report published in Financial Times, London, that said "India grabs investment league pole position."
Insurers should embrace the digital space with a resilient cyber security framework to disrupt the traditional business structures, the report said, adding that cyber-security is a key risk area for insurance.
While India has negligible direct exposure to Greece, the contagion risk will put pressure on the Indian rupee and increase market volatility, thereby risking capital inflows.
During FY12-14, nominal GDP growth averaged 13.4 percent YoY, but was offset by currency depreciation. â€œIn FY15-FY17, we expect nominal GDP to average around the same 13-13.5 percent YoY, but with a better composition of lower inflation and more real growth,â€ says Nomura.
Rating agency Crisil, the domestic arm of S&P, expects the India rupee (INR) rising about 56 against the US dollar by March, 2014. Key triggers: capital inflows resume and current account deficit (CAD) softens in 2013-14.
The Reserve Bank can buy USD 9 billion according to the balance of payments estimates and after assuming the Brent crude to be at USD 110 a barrel.
It will take India some tough decisions and several years before it can think of going back to a growth era of 8 per cent and more, which was an easy walk through till a few years ago, IMF has said.
Investor wealth soared by 27 per cent to around Rs 67.7 lakh crore in 2012 with the stock indices gaining nearly 25 per cent on hefty capital inflows and of late a slew of reform measures even as concerns remain over economic growth and rising fiscal deficit.
The Government's recent reform measures will boost capital inflows which will propel the rupee to rise up to Rs 51.5 against the dollar by end of the current fiscal, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
After appreciating over 110 paise on Friday due to stimulus measure announced by US government coupled with diesel price hike, the rupee is likely to trade between 54.30-54.80 to the dollar this week, say experts.
Standard Chartered upgrades its short-term rating for the rupee to "neutral" from "underweight", and revises its end-September forecast to 56 from previous forecast of 57.50, adding the cross has "likely" hit the high for the year.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced further measures on Monday to curb speculative trading in the foreign exchange market, but the move failed to halt the rupee's slide to another record low.
The rupee trimmed early gains on Tuesday as demand for dollars from oil importers picked up and choppy shares clouded the outlook for capital inflows.
The rupee edged slightly higher on Wednesday as better global risk sentiment bolstered hopes for capital inflows.
China's economy has surfed for years on a crest of hefty capital inflows, but the tide that brought gains in money supply is turning as global growth slows.
According to Alok Sama of Baer Capital, pressure on the rupee and cost of capital are two key concerns for Indian equities.
China will probably raise lenders' required reserves once again this month to soak up excess cash in the economy and tamp down on inflation, the official China Securities Journal reported on Thursday.
The Group of 20 financial chiefs will discuss this week destabilizing capital inflows to emerging market countries and collaboration with the International Monetary Fund to address the problem, Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said today
China will not loosen its annual quota on banks' short-term foreign borrowings for 2011 due to rising pressure from speculative capital inflows, a senior regulatory official said on Saturday.
Dr Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University economist and author of This Time is Different - 8 Centuries of Financial Follies and Russell Napier, economist and strategist from CLSA, in an exclusive interview to CNBC-TV18, they spoke about what the road ahead is for the US and if growth is back on track for the worlds largest economy.