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Sunil Khaitan, an IIM Bangalore Alumnus, has had a stint of a little more than three years in his current role in India. Subhrajit Roy was earlier an Executive Director & Head (ECM Origination) at Kotak Investment Banking.
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The strategy has always been the same – to remain true to the Coffee Can investment philosophy, irrespective of the marcoeconomic situation and business cycle, says Manish Jain.
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Regarding recession expectations, 38 percent of the panel think a recession is likely in the next 12 months, while 59 percent think it is unlikely. This is the highest recession probability since August 2009
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The warnings come amid the gloomy news on the growth front, with GDP expansion sliding to a 5-year-low of 5.8 percent in March and expected to fall further in June quarter.
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Overall, 34 percent thinks a recession is likely in the next 12 months against 64 percent who think it’s unlikely.
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He expects the market to correct ahead of the general elections and advises to look at bonds for investments instead of equities in 2019.
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For the second time in a row, the central bank maintained status quo on all key policy rates in the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy review announced Wednesday.
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The global investment firm also said the apex bank's decision Tuesday to infuse Rs 40,000 crore through OMOs in December may not be adequate to defuse the current liquidity shortfall, which is as high as Rs 1,00,000 crore.
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The government's earlier moves like tariff hikes on non-essential items were also "not significant either", the American brokerage said in a note.
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According to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) research report, rural demand is on an uptrend and investors should invest in consumption driven stocks while making their equity investments.
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"Although the country's microeconomics are improving, the macroeconomics are deteriorating. We think that macro will dominate in the near term and see downside risks to Indian equities. The higher oil prices will hurt the deficits and political uncertainty will increase into elections," the BofAML global research report said.
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Its rival Bank of America Merill Lynch (BofAML) also seemed to be echoing the same view, but added that it expects a rate cut in the August review if the monsoons are favourable.
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With the December quarter current account deficit worsening to 2 per cent of GDP, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) raised its current account deficit (CAD) forecast for this financial year and for the next fiscal.
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According to global financial services major Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), risks regarding price rise are overdone and March inflation is likely at 4.2 per cent, well within RBI's 2-6 per cent mandate.
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Even as the headline inflation climbed to 5.2 per cent in December, it is within the range of 2-6 per cent, set for the central bank as per the inflation targeting framework, analysts at Bank of America Merill Lynch said in a note.
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A total of Rs 35,828 crore will be infused into nine banks that haven't triggered prompt corrective action (PCA), including State Bank of India (SBI), Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda, among others, while Rs 52,311 crore will be pumped into 11 banks that have triggered PCA, including IDBI, Central Bank of India, and UCO Bank.
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The government on December 27 said it has decided to make additional borrowing of Rs 50,000 crore this fiscal through dated securities. Dated securities have maturity of over five years.
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According to global financial services major Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), inflation risks are "overdone" and though CPI inflation is likely to be 5.2 per cent in December 2017, it would cool down to around 4.5 per cent in the first half of 2018.
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According to global financial services majors like Nomura, BofAML and Morgan Stanley, price pressures are likely to build further in the coming months following a cyclical recovery in the economy and rise in vegetable and oil prices.
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According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), the Reserve Bank is expected to follow an "asymmetrical" policy response to the US dollar, wherein it will allow some depreciation in the rupee and will recoup forex reserves at every opportunity that the greenback depreciates.
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The government yesterday unveiled a Rs 2.11 lakh crore two-year road map for strengthening NPA-hit public sector banks, which includes re-capitalisation bonds, budgetary support, and equity dilution. "This (capital infusion in PSBs) will pull down lending rates, spur aggregate demand, put idle factories to work, exhaust capacity and spark investment in 2-3 years," the report said.
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According to global financial services major Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), retail inflation is expected to stay muted at around 3.5 per cent in September and 3.3 per cent in October, which will give RBI the room to ease interest rates.
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The report said that structural reforms take long time of 5-10 years to reflect in growth rate or reviving the stranded projects. In a research note, BofAML said, "Lending rate cuts hold the key to recovery. They would push up demand, put idle factories to work, and spark off investment when capacity is exhausted, in our view."
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There is likely potential risk of 6 percent equity issuance in DLF while the valuations look expensive for 3 percent FY19 return on equity, BofAML said in its report.
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According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML), inflationary pressures are expected to remain contained by good rains, low growth and subdued imported inflation amid decrease in global commodity prices.
