The weekly options data also suggested that 24,000, where the maximum Put open interest is placed, is expected to be a key support in the short term, while 25,000, which has the maximum Call open interest, is likely to be a crucial hurdle on the higher side. This means the index may possibly trade in the 24,000–25,000 range next week.
The weakness in banking stocks reflects macro concerns arising from surging crude oil prices amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict. Elevated crude oil prices have reignited inflationary concerns, stoking fears of tighter monetary policies and delay in interest-rate cuts by central banks.
Unless the Nifty 50 convincingly reclaims and sustains above the 200 DEMA (25,230), consolidation with range-bound trading may continue, with immediate support at 24,500, followed by 24,300 as a crucial support level.
The bears maintained the upper hand, given that the index is trading well below the 200-day EMA, the India VIX remains elevated (though it cooled), and bearish momentum persists.
Experts said that follow-through buying and a decisive move above 25,200 are necessary for the bulls to gain enough strength. Until then, the market may witness consolidation, with 24,600–24,500 acting as support.
According to experts, a rebound is possible after the sharp three-day fall, but sustainability will be key, given that bears remain in a strong position.
If the Nifty 50 breaks and sustains well below 24,300 zone, a fall towards 24,050–24,000 cannot be ruled out. However, 24,600 is expected to act as the immediate key resistance, experts said.
Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade in a broad range between 24,000 (where the maximum Put open interest is placed) and 25,000 (which has the maximum Call open interest) in the short term.
For India, which relies on imports for around 85% of her oil requirements, the real concern is the potential inflation and its consequences on economic growth, says an analyst
After sinking 1.25 percent each in the past two sessions, experts expect the bears to increase pressure on Nifty and target the 24,300–24,000 zone in the upcoming sessions, though there is a possibility of some recovery later. On the contrary, 25,000 may remain a crucial resistance level
Given the complete dominance of bears, driven by subdued momentum, weak technical indicators, and a sell-off across global markets, the previous day's low (24,603) and the August low (24,338) are expected to be at major risk in the upcoming session. Below these levels, bears may target 24,000, experts said.
In the current environment, Ashish Kyal advised clients to remain cautious and avoid aggressive participation in derivatives, given the event-driven volatility.
Weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade in the 24,500–25,000 range in the short term, as a breakout from this range could provide firm directional cues on either side.
Sudeep Shah recommends deploying a bear spread strategy by buying 25,150 Put and Selling 25,000 Put, as Nifty is likely to retest the 25,000–24,950 zone in the near term.
Experts expect a gap-down market opening on March 2, with the Nifty 50 likely breaking the psychological 25,000 zone, followed by a move toward the 24,850 support (the long upward-sloping support trendline).
The momentum indicators maintained a sell signal, and the bears received a further boost from intensified US-Iran tensions, both of which hint at a sharp gap-down opening for the market on March 2.
The weekly options data suggest that 25,000, where the maximum Put open interest is placed, is expected to act as key short-term support, while resistance is seen at 25,400–25,500, which holds the maximum Call open interest.
Bank Nifty stayed in the red since the open and weakened further as selling intensified in heavyweight private banks. Broader participation within banking stocks was largely negative. Gains were limited and stock-specific.
The Nifty 50 has been taking support at 25,400 on a closing basis since last week; hence, falling decisively below it can take the index down toward 25,250 (200-day EMA) in upcoming sessions. However, the 25,600–25,650 zone is acting as a hurdle, which needs to be convincingly surpassed for a move toward 25,900–26,000.
If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks below the 25,400–25,350 levels, further weakness toward 25,250 and 25,000 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, the immediate resistance is placed in the 25,600–25,650 zone, and only a convincing trade above this range may bring the bulls back, according to experts.
Analysts said the Nifty needs to decisively move out of the 25,300–25,600 band to establish a clear directional trend.
Pressure from heavyweight constituents tilted the balance negative for Bank Nifty today. HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of India and ICICI Bank all traded lower, offsetting gains elsewhere and pulling the index into the red.
The gains in Yes Bank stock today came as markets priced in passive inflows linked to the lender's entry into the Nifty Bank under revised weightage norms. February 26 marks one of the scheduled tranche adjustments for the index reshuffle.
The Nifty is expected to consolidate as long as it trades below the 25,650–25,700 resistance zone, with immediate support at the 25,400–25,300 zone. However, a decisive trade above 25,700 can raise the possibility of a move toward 25,900–26,000.
Consolidation with range-bound trading is expected to persist in the short term until the Nifty 50 decisively breaks out of the 25,300–25,900 range on either side.