Sharekhan's research report on Oil India
Oil India Limited’s (OIL) business fundamentals have turned positive with Brent oil prices at ~$74/bbl and a sharp rise in international gas prices. We expect standalone PAT to clock a CAGR of 34% and RoE to improve to 11.3% over FY21-24E. Increase in Numaligarh Refinery Ltd (NRL) stake is earnings accretive as GRMs would remain strong given excise duty benefit and 3x expansion in refinery capacity to create long-term value for OIL. The management expects combined oil & gas production to grow by 6-7% annually in the long term, but we believe majority of production growth to be back-ended and model an oil/gas production CAGR of 2%/4% over FY21-24E. Robust earnings recovery and dividend yield of ~6% makes risk-reward favourable.
Outlook
Hence, we upgrade OIL to Buy from Hold with a revised SoTP-based PT of Rs. 250. OIL is trading at 3.7x its FY23E EPS (including earnings contribution from NRL).
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