Why the BJP needs to keep its regional allies in Manipur happy

CM N Biren Singh (second from left) dances with party members after March 10 win. (Photo: PTI)

With the results declared, the newly elected legislators in Manipur are all set to take oath today (March 14). Sorokhaibam Rajen, senior BJP MLA, was sworn in by the Governor on Saturday as the protem speaker to administer the oath.

As expected the BJP has a majority in the assembly, having won 32 seats. The Congress has been reduced to five seats. The NPP performed well, winning seven – three more than earlier – while the NPF increased its tally by one seat to win five.

Remarkably, the JD (U) won six seats, opening its account in the State with a bang. New entrant KPA won two seats, while three independents made it to the list of winners

Nongthombam Biren Singh is all set to claim the CM seat for a second term. The new government is expected to take form on or before March 19.

The NPF, KPA and the three independent MLAs have officially announced their support for the BJP.

Read also: Who did Amit Shah want to woo?

The final call on who will lead the new government and who will be inducted into the cabinet is expected to come soon from the BJP high command. The saffron party’s central observers are expected to arrive in the state soon to oversee the process and take a decision.

Even as rumors are rife about BJP MLAs being divided over the CM post, the elected MLAs have clarified in the media that there is no in-fighting and that all of them will abide by the high command’s decisions.

Though it has a majority on its own, the BJP is taking along other partners, according to Biren Singh, “due to coalition dharma”.

Some political observers see this move as a preventive measure driven by insecurity. Manipur being notorious for defection, any new CM would like to keep like-minded political parties close in case there is a crisis or no-confidence motion. 

It may-be recalled that there were rebellions in the BJP during the previous government. Some believe this is likely to re-surface. Moreover, some senior politicians have defected to join the BJP with an eye on the top post.

Ahongsangbam Mubi, senior journalist and editor of the Times of Manipur TV Channel, said that even though the BJP needed no alliance, the Centre will instruct them to have tie-ups. However, other party MLAs are not likely to be offered cabinet berths or ministerships. Ahongsangbam also noted that the political parties that have declared their support have made it without any condition.

Regarding the NPP pulling out of the coalition, Ahongsangbam said: “That is the pre-election campaign story now. Post-election things may be different.” 

As things stand now, it is a wait and watch game for the NPP. The NPP is a partner in the BJP-led NEDA (North East Democratic Alliance). It remains to be seen if the absence of a partnership in the State affects the regional alliance or vice-versa. NEDA convenor and Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma had also reportedly remarked that NPP would be out of the alliance in Manipur.

The coming days/months will tell if the regional alliance matters or whether regional parties have any weight in the State or the region given that the party that is in power at the Centre is all set to rule in the state.

Observers say the partnership fell apart due to the anti-incumbency against CM Singh. Moreover, two NPP ministers were dropped by Singh during the mid-term re-shuffle.

The NPP had gone all out in the election and also indicated that it would ally with the congress. “In the numbers game, even if NPP goes with Congress they will have only 14. So, they will require 18 more and that’s not possible,” said Ahongsangbam.

Meanwhile some observers see that keeping an alliance with the NPF is with an eye on the Nagaland State election next year. Ahongsangbam said the BJP is also looking at the upcoming Lok Sabha Election in 2024. Manipur has 2 Parliamentary seats – one inner and one outer (hill tribal areas) seat. The sitting MP of the outer seat is from the NPF. The five 5 NPF seats in the state assembly are from this Lok Sabha constituency.

Moreover, given the crucial Naga Peace talks at the helm of electoral politics in Nagaland, and territorial integrity as the BJP’s key election plank in Manipur, the saffron party will aim to keep the alliance with the NPF intact to ensure there is no major crisis such as the 2001 episode during the AB Vajpayee-led NDA government (Manipur erupted in violence when the centre announce a ceasefire “without territorial limits” in the course of the Naga talks).

Regarding the JD(U) joining or supporting the new government, Ahongsangbam said that the Party is awaiting instructions from its central leadership. The MLAs, he feels, are likely to be instructed to support the new government. Whether that will be conditional or unconditional remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the Congress will sit in opposition once again. The Congress’s pre-poll alliance partner CPI ( MSC) did not win any seat.

In a major change, Manipur has elected five women MLAs this time around. One of them is a three-time MLA, while the other four are making their debut. The BJP has three women MLAs, while the NPP and KPA have one each.