What historical data suggests about who could win J&K polls

BJP would hope that improved track record over the last decade will likely bring more votes for the party

Jammu and Kashmir will begin its first phase of a historic assembly election--first since the region lost its special status in 2019. The people’s Democratic Party has 21 candidates, National Conference is contesting 18 seats and the BJP is contesting 16 seats while the Congress has nine candidates. The first phase of this high stakes battle kicks off on September 18, an election that will test Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party.

The PDP matriarch had won nearly 50 percent of the 19 seats up for grabs in elections held in the valley a decade ago.

The first phase also includes her family seats of Anantnag and Bijbehara, where the third generation of the Mufti family, Mehbooba’s daughter Iltaja Mufti, is contesting against an old-time PDP loyalist.

Can PDP repeat its performance?

A Moneycontrol analysis shows that JKPDP won nearly half the seats in the elections conducted between 2002 and 2014.

It had wrested control of the seven districts—Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam, Anantnag, Kishtwar, Doda and Ramban—from the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference in 2002.

In the 1998 elections, JKNC won 14 of the 19 seats in the seven districts.

The contest will also be tough for the Congress and BJP, which held 21 percent of the seats contested in the assembly elections a decade ago.

Congress and BJP

While Congress’ tally had reduced to four from seven in 2008, BJP had opened its account in the region for the first time since 1996, winning four seats in 2014.

BJP would hope that improved track record over the last decade will likely bring more votes for the party.

According to Niti Aayog, multidimensional poverty in the union territory was reduced to 4.8 percent in 2019-21, compared with 12.6 percent in 2015-16.

Ramban, which comprises two assembly constituencies, has the highest multidimensional poverty across districts at 14.9 percent.

Kishtwar and Doda, comprising six of 24 assembly constituencies, also have a high poverty rate compared with the rest of the districts.

Delimitation is also likely to create challenges for contesting parties, as five new constituencies will be electing candidates for the first time.