Opinion | Assembly Elections 2018: It’s more BJP's defeat than Congress' victory

Bhopal: Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan submits his resignation to Governor Anandiben Patel at Raj Bhawan, in Bhopal, Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2018. (PTI Photo)(PTI12_12_2018_000078B)

Abhinav Prakash Singh

The assembly elections in five states have thrown in mixed results. While the mandate in the states of Telangana and Chhattisgarh are decisive and Mizo National Front (MNF) has secured majority in Mizoram, the verdict in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh present no clear picture.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has secured 109 seats to 114 of the Congress. Neither of them have been able to secure the majority. More importantly, the vote difference between the two parties is 0.1%. In Rajasthan too, the Congress wasn’t able to cross the halfway mark with 99 seats to 73 seats of the BJP. Here, the vote share difference between them is just 0.5%.

It is clear that the Congress has failed to capitalise on the strong anti-incumbency, especially in Madhya Pradesh where the BJP was in power for 15 years. This looks more like a defeat of the BJP than a victory of the Congress. There too, the BJP has lost many of its seats with wafer-thin margins. It means that while the voters wanted change, they were not sure about electing the Congress. What has worked in favour of the Congress is simply being the default Opposition to the ruling BJP in these states.

However, it is also true that the BJP lost the perception battle in several of the constituencies, such as urban upper-castes, farmers, etc. Despite the massive rural infrastructure push by the BJP governments both at the state level and the Centre, the income levels haven’t been rising noticeably. This has created a feeling of stagnation. This was also true of the urban centres where, despite the government’s focus on ease of living by ensuring low inflation, cheaper medicines, low interest rates, there is a palpable discontent due to the lack of permanent or long-term salaried jobs. Most people in India prefer stability over entrepreneurship and risk-taking due to deep structural and social reasons. Something the BJP has failed to understand and address so far.

Watch | 'Voters Rejected Modi's Positioning of Rahul Gandhi as an Idiot'

Nothing else explains their inability to fill the tens of thousands of the government jobs in colleges, bureaucracy, health sector and so on. Mudra loans don’t get you vote, not yet. The other point was that upper-castes voted against or chose NOTA over the issue of the SC/ST Act. The BJP chose to restore the status quo on the SC/ST Act but got its messaging wrong, while the Congress seized the moment and ran an extremely regressive campaign of misinformation, demonisation of Scheduled Castes and tribals in closed-door meetings.

Fear and hatred was stoked among the upper-caste voters by painting the most vulnerable sections of society as villains. When coupled with other factors, this seems to have worked to ensure the defeat of the BJP in several urban centres.

Watch | What the Win in Hindi Heartland Means for Congress

In Telangana, the victory of TRS is unprecedented though tainted by the allegations of voter-list manipulation. It has to be noticed that K Chandrashekar Rao was the first one to decisively respond to the agrarian crises by his innovative farm income support scheme wherein all farmers get Rs 8,000 per acre — irrespective of crop grown, price or quantity sold. This along with other welfare schemes have earned him tremendous goodwill among the public.

In the Northeast, the Congress has lost its last state in Mizoram and the entire region is now under the NDA fold. Even as the MNF wrested power from the Congress after a gap of 10 years, the vote share of the BJP has risen from 0.37% to a significant 8%.

Watch | Why the Ajit Jogi Factor Didn't Harm Congress in Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh is the only real victory clinched by the Congress on the back of anti-incumbency of 15 years and discontent against the local-level corruption and perceived stagnation. In short, the BJP has come out of the contest bruised losing key states in the Hindi heartland while the Congress has got the much-needed boost before the big fight of 2019. The results also show that the regional parties such as the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will continue to play an important role in the Indian polity.

The BJP will need to refocus on its communication strategy and its policy of neglect of the urban middle class. It will have to respond with renewed vigour to the farm distress by ensuring higher incomes in the rural sector. It is true that it will take years for any such thrust to show tangible results but elections are more about perception and the BJP government is being seen as indifferent to the farmers and to urban aspirational youth’s desire for stable salaried jobs. These issues can’t be addressed by the renewed Ram Mandir movement.

(Abhinav Prakash Singh is assistant professor, Shri Ram College of Commerce, University of Delhi, Delhi. Views are personal)

For more Opinion pieces, click here.