Opinion | How 'social engineering' helped Congress wrest power in Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh elections

Anand Kochukudy

Chhattisgarh has given a thumping majority to the Congress, ending the three-term rule of Bharatiya Janata Party’s Dr Raman Singh. Although pollsters had predicted a tight contest, it eventually turned out to be one-sided, with the BJP losing a significant percentage (8%+) of its votes in the state. The ‘Third Front’, led by Ajit Jogi’s Chhattisgarh Janata Congress (JCC) with ally Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which was tipped to eat into the Congress vote share, seems to have damaged the prospects of the BJP more than the Congress.

So, how did the Congress win so convincingly in the absence of a wave? Apart from the other major factors, it also boils down to ‘social engineering’.

In Chhattisgarh, the Congress has traditionally banked on the support of Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST), often at the cost of the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and others. The OBC groups, which make up roughly 48 percent of the vote share of the population, is even higher than the combined strength of the SC and ST population in the state (12.5 percent and 30 percent respectively). The OBC groups are majorly made up of the Sahus and the Kurmis in Chhattisgarh.

In March early this year, a caste pressure group representing Chhattisgarh's Sahu community (which makes up 16-17 percent of the state population),  sought an audience with Rahul Gandhi and other senior Congress leaders in Delhi. They demanded adequate representation in the power structure of the party, and tickets for their representatives in return for their support. The Sahus have been nursing resentment against the BJP for being marginalised in the last decade and had made up their mind to switch support to the Congress.

The first signs of this fledgling relationship bearing fruit was witnessed in July when the lone Chhattisgarh MP, Tamradhwaj Sahu, was nominated to the Congress Working Committee (CWC) core group, over many senior claimants. As the elections drew near, the BJP too realised the disenchantment of the Sahus and tried to woo them by giving the community 14 tickets in the Assembly polls. But, it seems the Sahus had already made up their mind, and despite Congress granting them fewer tickets (8), they seem to have stuck to their word.

The fact that the Sahus switched their allegiance en masse helped the Congress in Bilaspur, Durg and Raipur divisions—traditionally, a stronghold of the BJP. The Congress has maintained its upper hand in the Naxal-hit Bastar division, winning all the 12 seats including Jagdalpur. Even in the Sarguja belt of northern Chhattisgarh, the Congress routed the BJP in most seats. It is a comprehensive win, a tad unexpected in a state that witnessed narrow margins since 2003.

Apart from the caste factor, the BJP ploy to renominate 36 of their 49 sitting MLAs (including 13 of the 14 Ministers) seems to have backfired with the majority of them losing their seats. Despite Raman Singh remaining moderately popular in the state, it seems that voter fatigue and yearning for a better deal prompted people to switch to the Congress. The Congress' promise an upward revision to the extant minimum support prices (MSP) for crops, and a write-off of farm loans seems to have swung the tide in its favour.

A big factor in Congress’ victory is Ajit Jogi. Apart from damaging the prospects of the BJP more than the Congress in this election, Jogi was long suspected to be sabotaging the party from within. His exit, following the expulsion of his son Amit Jogi for conspiring to lose the Antagarh bypoll (caught on tape) in 2015, might have turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Congress. Despite winning eight seats with ally BSP, Jogi’s hopes to emerge as a “King maker” has been dashed following Congress’ massive victory.

As for the next Chief Minister, Congress might choose between Tamaradhwaj Sahu and Leader of Opposition T S Singh Deo. Despite leading the party ably for five years leading up to this election, Bhupesh Baghel is not likely to be considered for the post as he has reportedly lost the confidence of Rahul Gandhi following his involvement in a CD scandal. Knowing Gandhi’s proclivity to opt for suave and articulate speakers over the rustic ones, Singh Deo might fancy his chances over Sahu. Like Moses being denied entry into the ‘promised land’, Baghel would be left introspecting. What if!

(Anand Kochukudy is a Delhi-based academic and political commentator. Views expressed are personal)

Assembly Elections 2018: Read the latest news, views and analysis here