Lok Sabha 2024 Polls: Mayawati’s decision to go solo may indirectly boost BJP

In 2019, BSP, SP and RLD came together to combat BJP.

Seeking to quell speculation about her party joining the INDIA bloc, Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati declared that her party would contest the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections on its own.

“Our experience with alliances has never been beneficial and we suffer more losses. For this reason, most of the parties in the country want to ally with BSP. An alliance can be considered after the elections—if possible, BSP can extend its support after the elections...our party will fight the elections all alone,” she said on January 15, on her 68th birthday, while addressing a press conference.

Also  read: BSP will go it alone in Lok Sabha polls: Mayawati

Mayawati’s decision to go it alone in the state, which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, the highest number in the country, is likely to upset the INDIA bloc’s math as it comes together to take on the BJP.

Impact on BJP in UP in 2024

In 2019, the BSP, SP, and RLD came together to combat the BJP. Even then, the BJP swept the state by winning 62 seats. However, after a no-show in 2014, the BSP won 10 seats out of the 38 it contested in Uttar Pradesh. Its vote share was 19 percent in 2019.  However, Mayawati parted ways with SP soon after the 2019 elections. In the 2022 UP assembly polls, the BSP managed to win only one of the 403 assembly seats in the state, with a vote share of 12.9 percent.  After those assembly elections, smaller parties such as the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) have also gravitated towards the BJP.

Also read: BSP chief Mayawati declares nephew Akash Anand as 'uttaradhikari', says party leader

While acknowledging past alliances with the SP and Congress, Mayawati blamed Akhilesh Yadav for changing colours like a “chameleon”.

The BSP leader’s politics mostly revolve around Dalit, Muslim, and OBC voters. However, her decision to go solo can potentially divide these votes across the BSP, SP, and Congress. This situation may indirectly help the BJP, which claims Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s welfare schemes and charisma can attract votes from across communities.

“Now, if the SP wins more seats than the BSP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it will establish the SP as the only challenger to the BJP in the 2027 assembly elections. Otherwise, the BSP will end up making the contest triangular and that will benefit the BJP, as happened in 2022,” an SP leader told Indian Express.

Challenges ahead

The BSP chief urged party leaders and workers to “work with full strength to help the BSP get a favourable verdict” in the 2024 election. The BSP had notably registered its presence in UP politics by joining hands with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP and defeating the BJP in the 1993 assembly polls. While scheduled caste voters have been the main base of the BSP, it also enjoys considerable support from MBC (most backward classes) voters. But recently many BSP leaders, who are popular among MBC voters, joined the BJP. Ahead of the 2024 polls, the BSP will have to keep its SC vote bank intact.

Another task would be to look for young faces among the MBCs to put up a good show in the 2024 battle in UP.