Congress’ uphill task in UP: Finding 160 women candidates with a shot at winning

This is how the data stacks — women have never accounted for more than 11 percent of the Congress party’s candidates in any of the last three Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, according to an analysis by the New Delhi-based Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR).

With the announcement that women candidates would make up 40 percent of its candidates in the upcoming Assembly elections, the party faces an uphill task finding 160 women candidates who have a shot at winning.

The announcement by the Congress that it would have two women in every five candidates in India’s most populous state comes at a time when the party is being led by two key women leaders — nationally by party president Sonia Gandhi and in the state by general secretary in-charge Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

The choice of Uttar Pradesh, and not four other states that go to the polls together, is interesting, given that less than 10 years ago it was led by a woman chief minister, Mayawati, who heads the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Until now the Congress has received applications from at least 1,600 potential women candidates in the state, Ajay Kumar Lallu, the party’s state unit president, told Moneycontrol in an interview.

With the Assembly elections expected to be announced in less than three months, senior party leaders said that their campaigns on the ground, like ‘Ladki Hoon, Lad Sakti Hoon’ (I am a girl, I can fight), Vadra’s public meetings and women-specific manifesto promises would help it gain traction among potential women candidates and voters.

While saying that the announcement could generate a good talking point for the Congress under Vadra’s leadership, experts expressed doubts about how well this strategy would work given that the party has faced a massive erosion in its support base in Uttar Pradesh over the last two decades.

Congress’ outreach in the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress contested 114 seats and fielded only 12 women candidates; in 2012, it fielded 34 women out of the total of 355 seats it contested, while in 2007, it had 36 women candidates in the 393 seats it contested, according to the analysis by ADR.

If this is the trend to go by and considering that the Congress is likely to contest these elections on its own, it is looking to scale up the women candidate count over the past two decades roughly four times.

The winnability factor will also be a key issue, as in the previous three elections, the maximum number of women candidates who got elected from the Congress was three in 2012, in line with the party’s overall dismal performance in the State.

In Uttar Pradesh, one of the key persons assigned to execute the task of finding suitable candidates is Lallu. Considered to be a political street fighter, he took over the Congress’ top post in the state two years ago.

Lallu said he is confident that the announcement would help the party consolidate support among women voters and noted that the party’s drive to seek applications has received an ‘impressive response’ from women candidates.

“We have got more than 5,500 applications from those wanting to contest elections, out of which more than 1,600 are from women. We are working towards the decision taken by the general secretary. There is no compulsion on us as to who these women candidates are; they could be from the political field or from the social sector,” Lallu told  Moneycontrol in an interview.

Lallu said that the Congress has not finalised seat-wise distribution for women candidates but noted that it would depend on who the candidates being considered are and what their winnability factor is. “We will give tickets to those who have a chance at winning. Seats have not been fixed but our key priority will be gauging who will contest better in any particular seat,” he added.

Congress leaders from the state, such as former Union minister Mohsina Kidwai, feel that her party’s role in providing women reservation at the panchayat level has created grassroot leaders and would help in identifying candidates and fulfilling its commitment.

“Our party was instrumental in bringing reservation for women in panchayats and so I would say there is already a base for a move like this. This is a huge step forward for 50 percent of the population. Women are naturally good at decision making and are more honest. I do not see any problem in finding this number of women candidates,” Kidwai, who is also part of Congress’ campaign committee for the state, told Moneycontrol.

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s role

Days after being appointed the chief of the party’s campaign committee in the state, PL Punia said Vadra was the “face” of the party’s election campaign in Uttar Pradesh. The statement was significant because it officially conveyed that Vadra would play a key role for the party in the state’s politics.

Considered to be the brains behind the decision, Vadra, while announcing the reservation in ticket distribution, said it was the ‘first promise’ of the party, indicating how important the move was for the Congress. The party is stitching together this announcement around Vadra, including the choice of public meetings, social media engagements and manifesto promises.

The Congress is organising several “samvad” or dialogue meetings with Vadra, primarily with women attendees as was the case in Chitrakoot last month. The meetings are also expected to help the party identify potential candidates. To attract women voters, Vadra has already announced a women-specific manifesto with promises such as smartphones, scooters for female students, and three free gas cylinders annually.

Political analysts feel that the party’s announcement is “out of box thinking” that may not reap immediate an electoral benefit but aimed at investing in the state’s future polity. Interestingly, Vadra, too, had said while making the announcement that “if not now” these candidates would become stronger by the next election.

“Congress is trying to do something out of the box but it is not going to help them electorally. Of course, you can always identify and field 160 women candidates in a State like Uttar Pradesh who are interested in contesting. But for a party which theoretically has no chance of winning, it doesn’t make much of a difference,” said Mirza Asmer Beg, professor of political science at Aligarh Muslim University (AMU).

“This is also a step forward in pitching Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as the face of the party in Uttar Pradesh going ahead. This announcement is the beginning of that,” he added.

Challenges Ahead

The Congress’ overall electoral decline in the state mirrors its shrinking national political presence. The last time it had a chief minister in Uttar Pradesh was more than three decades ago, in 1989. During the Lok Sabha elections 18 months ago, the party bagged only one seat — won by Sonia Gandhi — out of 80 in the state, with an overall vote share under 6.4 percent.

In this election, the main challenger to the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, is former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, who leads the Samajwadi Party (SP), and looks set to strike a prepoll alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Early opinion polls have placed the BSP in the third spot and the Congress, which is set to go it alone, a distant fourth.

The party is betting big on its announcement of reservations for women in ticket distribution and has said that the candidates’ list will be announced soon.

“We are certain that the party organisation will benefit from this announcement. I don’t think there is any dearth of talent and we will field the required number of women candidates. The party is working on this and ticket declaration will happen soon,” Anshu Awasthi, the party’s spokesperson for the state, told Moneycontrol.

Interestingly, the Congress is a key player in all the five states going to the polls early next year. However, there has been no similar announcement on women candidates for Goa, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Punjab. The Congress is the incumbent in Punjab and the main Opposition in the three smaller states, unlike in Uttar Pradesh, where it trails all the main political players.

Anjoo Sharan Upadhyaya, professor of political science at Banaras Hindu University, told Moneycontrol that an announcement on greater representation for women or any other demographic or social group in ticket distribution was no guarantee of a better performance in an election.

“Simply making such a promise does not take any political party far in an electoral contest. Elections are a far more complex phenomenon. Uttar Pradesh’s elections this time are even more critical given that there are factors such as anti-incumbency, different parties coming together, and the ruling party trying to convince voters that given its performance it should be voted back,” said Upadhyaya.