Cong misses backroom strategist Ahmed Patel as it faces first Gujarat election since his demise

ahmed_patel_Congress

Nearly five years ago, the sense among most Congress leaders was that 2017 was the party’s best shot at winning the Gujarat elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state.

Just months ahead of the announcement of the election, senior leader Ahmed Patel had dramatically won his Rajya Sabha seat in a midnight nail-biter finish.

Also Read: Ahmed Patel was master conductor of the orchestra called Congress

Patel’s win gave the party a fresh momentum and coupled with a sustained campaign by Rahul Gandhi and the stitching of social alliances, like those with the face of the Patidar agitation Hardik Patel and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor, the Congress got its highest seat tally and vote share in over two decades, winning 77 seats with a 41.44 percent vote share.

The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the election for a sixth term but was limited to a double-digit majority for the first time since 1998.

In the 2017 elections, it won 99 seats with a vote share of 49.05 percent, while in 2012, it had won 115 seats with 47.85 percent vote share.

However, a lot changed for the Congress in the last five years.
In Gujarat, the Congress had always depended on Patel’s backroom strategies and his abilities to manage political crisis of all hues. However, the 71-year-old leader breathed his last on November 25, 2020, after multiple organ failure arising from post-COVID complications.

This will be the first election that the Congress will contest since Patel passed away.

Gujarat is going to vote in two phases on December 1 and 5. Counting of votes will take place on December 8. Nomination for the first phase began on November 5, while for the second phase, it will begin on November 10.

While party leaders say his death has left behind a political vacuum, particularly as the electioneering process has begun, political experts feel that the cracks in an already beleaguered Congress is getting wider in his absence.

Patel’s role in electioneering

An eight-time parliamentarian from Gujarat, treasurer of the Congress party and political secretary to Sonia Gandhi, Patel rose from the ranks to become one of the most powerful leaders in the party without ever holding any ministerial position.

As Gujarat goes to polls, party leaders recalled his role during electioneering and how his absence is being felt this time around.

“The entire state unit is missing his presence. He used to single-handedly take care of a lot of things, particularly during the past few state elections. He leaves behind a vacuum in the state unit,” a former national general secretary of the party from Gujarat said, requesting anonymity.

For a powerful leader who consciously held a low profile, Patel is remembered by party insiders as someone who maintained personal relationships with top leaders and party workers with the same alacrity.

They add that he could “simply pick up the phone” and call those who were upset with the party for reasons like not getting a ticket, not having enough resources or those with campaign-related complaints.

“He knew the nuances of most of the seats at the back of his hand. Time is of essence in any election, and if he was around, a lot of planning would have happened at least a month or two in advance, including zeroing down on candidates, raising resources, etc. That is what is missing this time,” another Congress functionary from the state said, requesting anonymity.

The old guard owed its allegiance to Patel and he was an important link to the Gandhi family.

Overcoming the political vacuum

Manish Doshi, chief spokesperson of the Congress in Gujarat, recalled his nearly two-decade-long close association with Patel. He said that Patel has left behind a ‘deep vacuum’ in the party’s state unit because of how accessible he was to everyone, whether he agreed or disagreed with them.

“Congress should win – this was his singular priority in each election. His biggest asset was he used to keep even the smallest of things in mind and manage party resources well. He knew how to put things across for the electorate and that helped,” Doshi told Moneycontrol.

When asked how the party is coping with Patel’s absence, Doshi said that the party is focusing on ‘collective leadership’ in this election. He added that the high command has ‘entrusted’ senior leaders, including Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot as senior observer, to oversee the elections.

Political experts, however, say that the vacuum left behind by Patel, coupled with the organisational challenges being faced by the Congress, are a daunting challenge to overcome – at least in the ongoing elections.

“Elections are never all about campaigning. Congress contesting Gujarat minus Patel is a huge vacuum for its party leaders. In the last few years, a section of leaders also thought that his intervention happened a lot but it was still a fact that he was the go-to person for a lot of things whenever elections happened in the state,” said Mahasweta Jani, Ahmedabad-based state coordinator of the Lokniti Network run by the Centre of Developing Societies (CSDS).

Months after Patel’s death, Congress also lost its young stalwart Rajeev Satav to post-COVID complications on May 16, 2021. A close aide of Rahul Gandhi, Satav was in-charge of Gujarat and played a crucial role during the elections of 2017, particularly in the party’s impressive turnaround performance in the Saurashtra region.

“Soon after the last assembly elections, there was a moment to rejig the party organisation but not much heed was paid to that. If we had built on that momentum, things may have looked brighter this time,” the second leader quoted above added.

Congress’ Gujarat challenges

In the run-up to the 2017 Gujarat elections, Rahul Gandhi was soon to be elevated as Congress president and this expectation had reenergised the party cadre.

Gujarat elections was then seen as a high-stake contest and the party ran an aggressive campaign, fielding young faces like Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor, after protests by Patidars and OBCs (Other Backward Classes), respectively.

Soon after the party’s drubbing in the 2019 general elections, Gandhi stepped down as party chief. Last month, veteran leader Mallikarjun Kharge got elected as the new Congress president and elections to Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will be the first ones under his leadership.

Since the last Gujarat elections, both Hardik Patel and Thakor have moved on to the BJP and experts say the state unit continues to be suffer from the lack of new-generation leadership.

“Patel’s absence has highlighted the existing organisational issues being faced by the Congress in the state. Last time, it came close to the finishing line. Now, it seems to have lost interest and confidence. There is no new leadership in the party. Young leaders representing social movements who were part of Congress’ campaign in 2017 have moved on,” Jani added.

Indeed, the challenge for the Congress is mounting, particularly since the run-up to this election has seen the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, as a key challenger to the BJP.

For the Congress, which has traditionally been the BJP’s chief rival in Gujarat, the AAP’s rise in the state could be a major cause for concern, having already lost two key states -- Delhi and Punjab -- to the Kejriwal-led party.