BSP to go it alone in Madhya Pradesh: How Mayawati's decision will affect Congress

BSP Chief Mayawati,congress bsp alliance

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati has ruled out any possibility of an alliance with the Congress for the upcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Addressing a press conference on October 3, the Uttar Pradesh supremo said that even though Congress President Rahul Gandhi and his mother Sonia Gandhi appeared in favour of an alliance, there were other "senior leaders" who worked to foil any possibility of an understanding.

“The BSP has decided to contest alone in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. We will not fight the elections with the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan at any cost,” Mayawati said.

The BSP chief had earlier dismissed talks of a tie-up with the Congress in poll-bound Chhattisgarh year, announcing an alliance with former chief minister Ajit Jogi's outfit, Janta Congress Chhattisgarh. Jogi was earlier a member of the Grand Old Party.

Mayawati also claimed that the voters in the three poll-bound states were not in favour of the BJP returning to power, but due to the Congress' "stubborn attitude", her party had to strike an alliance with a regional party in Chhattisgarh.

Impact on Madhya Pradesh

Vote share

Talks of Congress-BSP alliance for Madhya Pradesh polls have been doing the rounds in political galleries since long. The tie-up was expected to be beneficial for both the parties considering their performances in the last assembly elections.

In the 2013 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, the vote share difference between the BJP and the Congress was 8.5 percent. BSP’s vote share was 6.29 percent in the polls.

Going by the numbers, it is apparent that had the BSP joined hands with the Congress in the upcoming assembly polls, the latter’s vote share would have added considerable weight to its alliance partner.

SC/ST Act outrage

Mayawati's apparent fallout with the Congress could come down heavily on the Grand Old Party vis-a-vis the caste conundrum brewing in the state, especially after the Centre brought a legislation to overturn the Supreme Court order which "diluted" the SC/ST Act.

After the Supreme Court's ruling on the provision of mandatory arrests under the SC/ST Act, Madhya Pradesh witnessed violent protests by Dalit organisations. At that time, Mayawati had supported the agitation.

Read Also: Will SC/ST Act conundrum hit BJP's voter base in Madhya Pradesh?

Keeping in mind that the Dalits have historically supported the BSP, Mayawati's dismissal of an alliance with the Congress could cost the party their Dalit electorate.

According to the 2009 Census, out of the total population of the state, 15.2 percent is Scheduled Caste while 20.3 is Scheduled Tribe.

Anti-incumbency

The state has been ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for 15 years, with Shivraj Singh Chouhan being the chief minister for three consecutive terms.

In such a situation, the possibility of anti-incumbency against the saffron party seeps in. This means that some of the loyal BJP voters may choose another party over BJP in the upcoming elections.

As the Congress and the BSP have emerged as the second and the third largest party respectively in the last three assembly polls, there is a possibility that voters may opt for any of these two parties. This implies, an alliance would have proved fruitful for both the parties.

Besides, the BSP’s decision to not forge an alliance with the Congress in the assembly polls may be detrimental to the Congress' efforts to stitch a united front against the ruling BJP ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Assembly Elections 2018: Read the latest news, views and analysis here