As lotus unfurls in North East, BJP becomes the loudest voice in the region

As per Election Commission, BJP has won 32 seats in Tripura with a vote share of 39 percent.

With Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) registering victory in Tripura and Nagaland Assembly elections with its alliance partners, the party seems to have established itself as the primary national party in the northeast region.

BJP’s performance has arisen ahead of 2024 general elections, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third straight term at the Centre.

BJP, a commanding force

In two north-eastern states – Nagaland and Tripura, the saffron party has been able hold the number of seats, besides vote share in comparison to assembly elections held in 2018.

As per Election Commission, BJP has won 32 seats in Tripura with a vote share of 39 percent. In 2018, with 43.59 percent of the vote, BJP secured a majority of thirty-six seats and formed the government with Biplab Kumar Deb as chief minister.

In fact, in Nagaland also, the BJP has again managed to take 12 seats into its account with a vote share of 18.8 percent.  In the previous assembly elections, BJP had contested on 20 seats and won 12 seats with a vote share of 15.3 percent.

The party’s vote share in Nagaland has increased by 3.5 percent in the state.

In Meghalaya, BJP fielded candidates on all sixty seats, but won only two. In 2018 also, BJP had won only two seats of the 47 seats contested.

Despite having an estranged relationship with BJP, Chief Minister Conrad Sangma has reportedly spoken to union Home Minister Amit Shah and sought his support in forming the new government.

The party will have presence again in these three north eastern states that went to polls on February 16 and 27.

BJP’s success is also seen as the outcome of launching social welfare schemes such as delivery of free ration. Centre’s announcement of connecting northeast state capitals with air and rail connectivity before 2024, is also seen as a strong cause of support as commuting is a major concern in the hilly states.

Read: Will  decide on way forward after final results: Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma

Women lawmakers in Nagaland

Sixty years after attaining statehood, Nagaland for the first time has elected women lawmakers to the state assembly. Hekhani Jakhalu and Salhoutuonuo Kruse of the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party’s (NDPP) have won from the Dimapur–III Assembly and Western Angami constituencies by a margin of 1536 and 7 votes respectively.

This would be the first time that the 60-member House will see the participation of women. The state had never had a woman MLA despite the fact that women voters form a high percentage of the electorate.

Congress a spent force

Congress, which once dominated the north-eastern states seems to have lost its grandeur. The Grand Old Party’s overall performance in these states has tumbled further.

The party had forged an alliance with Left in Tripura and contested on 13 seats, but managed get only a few seats. In Meghalaya as well, party’s tally has decreased where it had emerged as single largest party in 2018 with 21 seats.

With results out, it looks even Rahul Gandhi’s only rally in Shillong couldn’t change people’s mind. Also, his Bharat Jodo Yatra too has no effect.

Meanwhile, it struggled to choose candidates in Nagaland and fought only on few seats 23 Assembly seats. However, the party again failed to open its account again in Nagaland.

Dominance of regional parties

Regional parties have continued to remain bigger players in the states, particularly in Tripura where dent have been made by the newbie Tipra Motha, which joined the fray with the demand of ‘Greater Tipraland’.

The party led by royal scion Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarma has open its account in the state winning 13 of the 42 seats it contested. Also in Meghalaya, which has come to a hung assembly, seats have scattered among regional parties, which makes it clear these parties still have a strong relevance among people.

The ruling National People’s Party, led by Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, has won 22 seats with a vote share of 31.4 percent. Moreover, Nagaland’s Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party, which contested on a seat sharing agreement with BJP has won 25 seats of the total 40 seats it contested in the state. The regional party has got a vote share of 32.2 percent, which has increased by 7 percent in view of the party’s performance in 2018.

No impact on 2024

Commenting on BJP’s results, political observers are of the opinion these numbers will have not have any bearing on the 2024- Lok Sabha elections, but it will definitely help the party to garner support in other states such as Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where assembly polls are scheduled to be held later this year.

“These states are tiny as a result of which the number of Lok Sabha seats is also low. Nagaland has one parliamentary constituency, whereas Tripura has two Lok Sabha constituencies. Considering this, these number of seats doesn’t have a major role in government formation at the centre,” said political analyst Rasheed Kidwai.

Meanwhile, BJP can go big on setting up a narrative that people of in other states that northeast have accepted them on the basis of carrying out developmental works, Kidwai maintained.

“Northeast region has been volatile politically and regional parties have had a dominance. Despite having such challenges, the BJP has emerged victorious again and it sends a positive signal on the political front,” he said.

In his remarks Kidwai says, “Congress has lost not only lost ground, its gap with opposition has also widened. Statements given by Rahul Gandhi against Mamata Banerjee have not gone well. The ruling BJP can take benefit of this factor as well.”