Women’s Reservation Bill: Why almost every party is supporting the government’s legislation despite misgivings

This could be seen as a possibility of some positive shift amongst women voters towards the BJP. (Representational image)

It is clear that Indian women can think of reaping the electoral benefits from the Naari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (Women’s reservation bill) which guarantees 33 percent reservation for women in state assemblies and Parliament during the 2029 Lok Sabha elections and not before that.

But passing the bill a few months before 2024 Lok Sabha elections for something to come into effect in 2029 Lok Sabha elections seems to be a clever strategy of the BJP to reap a “double” benefit from a single legislation: First, during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and again during the 2029 Lok Sabha elections when women’s reservation will come into effect.

BJP To Gain. But How Much?

There only remain two puzzles: First. BJP certainly stands to gain, but to what extent, and secondly, why did all opposition parties need to support this bill in the Lok Sabha when clearly this means supporting Narendra Modi? A related question is what will the opposition parties convey to their voters on this issue and how will this affect their electoral prospects?

The Bill’s passing is seen as a historic event as it has finally passed the Lok Sabha 27 years after it was first introduced by the Deve Gowda government. Even though the real benefits to women would be visible only after six years during the 2029 Lok Sabha election, its passage has created a perception that it is only BJP, and especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who seems committed to the social, economic and political mobility, and hence there is a possibility of some positive shift amongst women voters towards the BJP.

The opposition may try to counter the BJP narrative and put forward the argument of this move being politically motivated given the timing, but what is being generally conveyed is that even if the benefits would be delayed, it has finally come to women’s doorsteps. The electoral benefit to the BJP is likely to be limited during the 2024 election as a large number of women voters, especially the rural voters may still think of this as a promise and promise has a limit to pay dividends. But when implemented in 2029, it is likely to pay a decent electoral dividend for the BJP.

Opposition Parties Fall In Line

Some political parties which opposed a similar bill introduced in Parliament earlier have now supported the bill not because all political parties or all elected members of various political parties have real commitment for women’s political empowerment, but because of social and political desirability of the present day times.

We are living in the age of gender justice, whether we talk of gender parity at home, or workplace or public places or in politics. Even if one does not fully adhere or endorse this principle in their personal life, one is bound to endorse such a move to be seen as politically correct. No political party can dare to be seen as the one opposing the women reservation bill.

This is one reason why the opposition parties, those who have opposed almost everything which the Modi Government brought about, chose to support the Bill even at the cost of being seen as supporting the Narendra Modi government.

In order to show their reservation many political parties did raise the issue of quota within the quota, demanding reservation for women belonging to the OBC castes.

Rising Women Voter Turnout

Finally, some leaders or parties may have personal reservations about extending 33 percent reservation for women in State assemblies and Parliament, but they can’t turn their back to the hard reality that women have become politically more active and more participatory now compared to the past.

Women voters are voting in large numbers both for state assembly elections and for the Lok Sabha elections. In many states, women voters have outnumbered male voters. Figures in the above table clearly indicate how there has been a change in pattern of women turnout during the last two decades, from the 2004 to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Women have still not emerged as a solid votebank for any political party. We witnessed tilt in favour of Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, for Congress in Karnataka, and in many states for the BJP.

But the way women are actively participating in politics, there is hardly any doubt that they would start asking for their share in politics. This changing scenario helps to explain why even opposition parties overwhelmingly supported the Women’s reservation bill in the Lok Sabha.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.