Union Budget 2024: What the poor, youth, farmers and women will look for

Budget 2024: In this article we focus on the four castes mentioned by the Prime Minister: poor, youth, farmers and women.

India’s Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman is going to present the Interim Budget in two weeks. While the FM has said the Interim Budget will not have any surprises, there is still heightened discussion on her Speech and the Budget given it is an election year. While there are many ways one could discuss what to expect in the Budget Speech, I shall like to focus on the four castes mentioned by the Prime Minister: poor, youth, farmers and women.

The Poor

First let us discuss the poor. The Great Indian Poverty Debate which was once out of discussion has come alive. There is feverish debate amidst economists on whether poverty has declined or increased with economists arguing on both sides of the debate. One major problem in the debate is that the consumption expenditure survey which was used to estimate poverty has not been released since 2011-12. As a result, one cannot compute and compare the poverty ratios.

The Niti Aayog recently released the multidimensional poverty index which shows poverty ratio has declined from 25 percent in 2015-16 to 15 percent in 2019-20 and nearly 13.5 crore people escaped poverty in the period. While the data suggests poverty has declined, the government has continued to provide free grains to 81 crore people for the next five years.

While the Budget is not on the poverty estimates, the FM’s speech could provide some clarity on the poverty debate. After all, a clearer picture on poverty y trends will also help governments in future target programmes. Her speech could also (hopefully) lead the Government to release the much awaited Consumption Expenditure Survey which also helps in computing the Consumer Price Index whose base year has remained unchanged since 2011-12.

Youth

On youth, there is a similar debate as the one on poverty. India’s demographic evolution has shaped such that the country today has a higher share of younger population than the older demographic. This phenomenon called demographic dividend takes place in the history of most countries. The countries that use the demographic dividend well, also go on to become higher income economies.

However, for fruition of the dividend, youth needs economic opportunities else the dividend could quickly become a curse. Just as there are countries that have used the dividend to their advantage there are countries that have squandered the advantage, ending in it becoming a curse.

The issue of whether India is creating enough economic opportunities for the youth has been debated for long. There are discussions on whether India’s economic growth is “job-full” or “job-less”. The government started releasing unemployment data via Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) since 2017-18.

According to PLFS 2017-18, “the unemployment rate among the youth was much higher compared to that in the overall population”. The All India unemployment rate for the overall population was 6 percent whereas for youth it was 18 percent. In the PLFS 2022-23, unemployment rate has declined but the difference between overall and youth remains just as high. The overall unemployment rate in 2022-23 is 3.2 percent whereas youth unemployment rate is 10 percent. Within India, the rural youth unemployment rate is 8 percent and urban unemployment rate is 15.7 percent. The gender-wise unemployment rate shows male and female youth unemployment rate at 9.7 percent and 10 percent respectively.

Just like poverty estimates, there is no clarity on the actual numbers. CMIE suggests youth unemployment at 45 percent for age group 20-24 and 14.3 percent for age group 25-29. Azim Premji University’s State of Working Report 2023 shows that unemployment is concentrated amidst educated youth and is as much as 42 percent for young graduates.

The discussion and data on youth unemployment suggests that it deserves serious attention from policymakers. The world economy is also discussing whether digitalization and Artificial Intelligence will lead to lesser jobs in future. There is clearly plenty to think and act on this topic of youth employment.

Farmers 

The third topic of farmers is as intriguing as and also deeply interconnected to the first two points.  The political economy of agriculture and farmers has always been deeply contested in India. The share of agriculture in the economy has declined whereas the share of agriculture in employment has not declined.

The economy has not produced enough jobs to absorb the labour from agriculture leading to eventual poverty. Successive governments have tried to come up with multiple policies to revive agriculture and industrialise the economy to create jobs. Most of these have not worked as per expectations.

The government had come up with a policy of doubling farmer’s income. A Committee was instituted which submitted a 14-volume report to achieve the target. The government implemented various policies, reforms and programmes. The data also showed that average monthly income per agricultural household increased by 59 percent from Rs 6,426 in 2012-13 and Rs 10,218 in 2018-19. We have to see whether the farmer income can double and how much time it takes to double. The FM could consider providing an update on the recent numbers and also lay a path for further reform in agriculture.

Women

Fourth and final is women. One does not have much to say here but one hopes that we move beyond giving welfare programmes for women. In the past year, we have seen violence against women in Manipur, harassment against women wrestlers, and the shocking developments in the Bilkis Bano case before she received justice.

Each of these cases, especially the Bilkis Bano case, pose several questions on the well-being of women, morality and humanity. We have women in important political positions including the President and Finance Minister herself, but they have not taken any strong stand against violence and misbehaviour towards women. The welfare programmes mean nothing if we do not believe in the welfare of women.

Amol Agrawal teaches at Ahmedabad University, and is the author of 'History of Private Banking in South Canara district (1906-69)’. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.