Teesta Water Sharing: An Indian failure allows China to play knight in shining armour

The water-sharing formula of the Teesta River was finalised in 2011 itself.

China is suddenly centrestage in Dhaka, capital of poll-bound Bangladesh, after publicly announcing that the Sheikh Hasina government has sought Beijing’s assistance to execute mega projects in the Teesta River basin – and Dhaka lost no time in confirming that it indeed has.

Beijing’s move has two implications for India which has a bigger stake in Bangladesh than any other foreign power – so much so that getting Hasina re-elected is the Number 1 priority of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, especially its diplomatic and security establishments headed by S Jaishankar and Ajit Doval, respectively.

China’s Teesta Opportunity

Firstly, the unexpected announcement by China’s ambassador in Dhaka, Yao Wen, in late December shines a torch ahead of the January 7 general elections on India’s failure to sign the Teesta River water sharing agreement with Bangladesh and how New Delhi has kept Dhaka waiting for 13 long years since 2011.

Secondly, if Bangladesh does award contracts to China for projects in the Teesta basin, it would result in the stationing of a big Chinese workforce very close to the border with India, exposing us to grave security threats at a time when the dangerous deadlock at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is far from resolved, despite round after round of talks between military officers and diplomats representing Beijing and New Delhi.

No less significant is the timing of China's declaration that Bangladesh has turned to it for developing the Teesta basin. The message that Yao Wen wants to send across is that while Hasina’s inevitable reelection might be seen as a diplomatic triumph for India, China enjoys even greater leverage in Bangladesh as a dependable development partner Dhaka turns to when India lets it down.

The objective of the assertive messaging by China so close to voting in the general elections is to give a big boost to its image in Bangladesh, and possibly other South Asian nations, at the cost of India’s.

A Dhaka Jolt To India

Importantly, Dhaka unhesitatingly validated Chinese ambassador Yao Wen’s announcement when it could have easily played it down. Obviously, Dhaka did that to convey its own dissatisfaction with New Delhi for not putting its house in order and signing the Teesta water sharing agreement in all these years.

But the Hasina government also knows what’s good for it. When Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Saheli Sabrin, was asked at the weekly media briefing about Wen’s loaded remarks, she immediately vouched for Yao Wen’s statement regarding Dhaka seeking Beijing’s assistance in the multipurpose Teesta River management project.

But when a reporter pinned down Sabrin and specifically asked whether India’s concerns over awarding projects to China so close to its frontier were factored in before approaching China, the spokesperson retorted defensively that “geopolitical issues” would certainly be taken into account by the Hasina government.

It is quite natural for Bangladesh to try to strike a balance between implacable foes China and India in order to keep both happy in its own interests. Hasina cannot get re-elected without New Delhi’s backing. But after becoming the PM for a fourth straight term with India’s blessings following the January 7 polls, she would still need Chinese funding to reinvigorate the economy to sustain the momentum of growth at over six percent which was the saving grace of her authoritarian rule since 2009.

Regardless of Yao Wen’s motives, let’s not doubt for even a moment the acute resentment in the neighbouring country over New Delhi’s failure to sign the Teesta treaty which would have given Bangladesh 37.5 percent of the trans-border river’s waters, leaving 42.5 percent for upper riparian India and the final 20 percent remaining in the river to maintain the ecological balance.

The water-sharing formula of the Teesta River, which enters Bangladesh from West Bengal, was finalised in 2011 itself. But the treaty is on hold indefinitely because of India’s fractious politics, or to be more precise, the unbridgeable differences between Modi and Mamata Banerjee. Modi is all for the Teesta treaty, just like Manmohan Singh before him, but Banerjee is vehemently against it – and it can’t be signed until she has a change of heart.

Teesta: North Bangladesh’s Lifeline

With New Delhi and Kolkata pulling in different directions, the denial of the due share of Teesta waters is ruining the economy of five northern Bangladesh districts:  Rangpur, Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Dinajpur, and Bogra. According to a 2013 report of Asia Foundation, nearly 21 million people depend directly or indirectly on the Teesta for their livelihoods, and the river’s flood plain cover roughly 14 percent of the total cropped area of Bangladesh. Because of the acute water scarcity during the dry season and floods during monsoons, the region is well and truly doomed.

It is hardly surprising that the Bangladesh government is trying to overcome the dire situation by building key infrastructure on its side of the water-starved Teesta River running downstream from India. Bangladesh has made elaborate plans to revive the river with the help of a billion-dollar Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP). According to Bangladeshi officials, the river restoration project will involve the construction of reservoirs to store water, dredging, land reclamation, erosion control and river bank protection.

Yao Wen was referring to the talks underway between the Bangladesh Water Board and Power Construction Corporation of China over the TRCMRP when he announced that Dhaka had turned to Beijing for help in the Teesta basin. The Bangladesh government might have been caught off guard but it was in no position to contradict him as he had after all spoken the truth.

As India has brought this situation upon itself, the remedy is also in New Delhi’s hands. If we are serious about stopping China from building a base in northern Bangladesh, we should immediately address our friendly neighbour’s legitimate water and food security concerns by fast-tracking the signing of the Teesta treaty. To keep China out of Bangladesh, New Delhi and Kolkata must resolve their differences over the Teesta treaty in the federal spirit of the Constitution – and give Bangladesh the share of water it is rightfully entitled to under international laws.

SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.